Whatever makes you feel like your not wasting your time. Tell me again how much you have made trading the past 52 weeks? I would bet my left nut you have outperformed the snp, let alone even broken even. The market is completely random on a short term intra day basis. Support and resistance are slightly repredictable, so it seems, but still not predictable enough to outperform the market using these indications.
High frequency traders pay little to no commission, and don’t usually “predict” the direction of the market. They take advantage of spreads and move in and out of positions within a fraction of a second to make .01 cents per trade. And news flash, not all hft shops make money.
Your left nut is of no importance to me nor evidently to yourself. Your lack of ability to trade successfully has no bearing on anyone else...nor frankly with your attitude, any interest.
I can answer with some personal experience, but I significantly younger (Twenty-six). After deciding to simplify my life and work towards self sufficiency I decided leave my job and stake myself as a trader. It has never been about money for me, but freeing my spirit from the system. I just got back from a 2-mo retreat in the middle of the woods which I used to realign my focus, study intensely, and trade daily. I rewarded myself by skiing everyday after I had hit my targets. That's the dream. Anyways, I thought similarly about myself- anytime I have ever tried anything with real resolve I have succeeded at becoming above average. This was six months ago, I knew nothing (I now know a little more than nothing, but mostly just what I don't know. I'm pretty well read, especially in economics/finance, so what I would consider "playing the book" came pretty quickly. Risk management, Kelly Criterion, differences between investments, leverage....all that managerial stuff you'd probably want to get out of the way before you start. I had also been actively managing long/short equity portfolio for the past 10 years. My first mistake, and I promise you, you will always make mistakes, was selection of an asset class, selection of a strategy, and the role hubris. I went into pennies, thinking the quick volatility spikes were an attractive way. It went great. Within three months I was up 30%, but without any discernible edge and nothing other than luck. I was trend following high volatility stocks, lots of people have success with that. Until October 11th...( remember I Started in August). My starting stake I was comfortable losing, which everyone suggests, was below the PDT number, that morning entered a trade 2x normal position size that morning, deciding it was the morning I was going to get rich. When my sell signal came, I ignored it trying to save a trade for later in the week. The stock fell 50%; I was no longer a trader but an investor in some shitty company. I learned more during that week than I ever have in my life, employment, education, etc. I started reading more and more ( I now have all of Jack Schwager's books on my iPhone, i read them over and over on my subway commutes) and investigating other strategies, traders etc. I had remembered this movie I watched when I was younger about Paul Tudor Jones so I watched that. I then took a field trip by his office one morning for motivation. It was a very introspective time. It was a qualitative and quantitative learning process with a heavy dose of soul searching. I figured everyone who had profitability had figured out how to remove the gambling aspect, it was back to the drawing board. Sometime around the New Year I found my first pattern. You will read constantly that to be successful you need a strategy that fits your personality- I firmly believe this is true- and my pattern could not be more perfect for me. It is one equity that I buy and sell daily. It took me a while to get comfortable shorting a stock I held in my long-term holding, figure out position sizing, but I maintained my balance through the trials and emerged. If you focus on not losing money, I've found successes happen at a predictable statistical frequency that compounds at a rapid rate. But if you focus on success your money will evaporate at that same frequency. For me one security was the way to go, it simplified the process and cut out all the noise. I've been trading one pattern successfully since with a realtime success rate of 75%. The pattern presents itself 6 times a week on average and I can extract 2-4% a trade which is crazy . I fear the day that this pattern become irrelevant or I become too big. That is when my meddle will be tested again, and I am sure it will be an immense challenge. In the meantime, I trade a few hours a day when it's good and spend the rest of my time trying to test strategies on futures, that is the next beast I'd like to tackle. If you scan through there or do any reading, you will hear the TA/PA/FA debate. It's all crazy. Find what works for you. Maybe it's an indicator, maybe its a balance sheet, maybe it's the tides, who knows. Don't knock what works for others. I've developed my own mosaic out of all these, and it is still far from perfect. I am still adjusting how to use it and testing correlations. I use nothing but raw price and volume data on the stock to get into a trade but I am constantly measuring the relationship between 5 other securities to see how movement might impact my stock. To wrap it up, you will succeed only if you're wiling to put forth the work. You must love it. You must not treat it as a hobby but as a business. You must totally immerse yourself in it. It worked for me because I like being a lone wolf and contrarian by nature, not because I read bout it in a book. For me, my chance at inner peace was self sufficiency. That bred extra motivation. Plus I live in the "Cesspool of Finance" where I am surrounded by corporate drones, to succeed on my own is to reach Nirvana. Everyday it's me against the world and the other side of my trade is a mega-bank or someone who knows more than me, so the challenge was important and not the reward. Money is irrelevant to me I could be equally as happy living in a yurt, as my circumstance might dictate tomorrow. If you're asking the question as you did, "if i can't make x I will get bored, will it work?", then my advice would be to tread very carefully, that's a toxic thought and a quick way to lose your stake Find enjoyment in the process and you will have a destination. If you do not enjoy it you will likely get lost on the way there. One quote from that PTJ movie I mentioned earlier comes to mind so I will paraphrase it, "After a while the size doesn't matter. If you're a quarterback with a 90% completion rating it doesn't matter if you're in middle school or the NFL." If you are comfortable as you are, don't risk it all.