Don't try and put words in my mouth. Besides, where I am long from is irrelevant, it won't affect how much I make or lose going forward. Feel free to tell us your position.
GOC obviously thinks Apple will dominate and I cannot see anything faulty with the premise. As long as the economy stabilizes and growth slowly returns, heck they pulled good numbers even through the downturn. Who will challenge them?
If I have a position relative to the topic I post it. Mine can be found on the "Apple gets bit" thread. Short the April 240 calls from 2.25. Cost-basis is irrelevant on how much you make or lose? Wow, that's a new concept.
you moron have to hijack every thread that contains the keyword "apple"? Stay in your " go short AAPL now and thank me forever" thread. You seriously have no idea what you are talking about. One day you push shorting SPX then the next day you come and tell everyone to stay away from SPY and ES, what an idiot. Back to the topic, I dont know AAPL is under or overvalued but I know people still like AAPL stocks. I have to admit I liquidated my AAPL positions 3 weeks ago and missed out on the last push. There may be more upside in the books, at least I see more chances for a further push up than down. I plan to buy again if AAPL dips but holds onto its long term trend. Should it break longer term support then I will look for a failed bounce and short into it. Nothing to do before that.
I think the cheap forward valuation is telling you something. Usually these type of stocks command a hefty multiple. Maybe hinting the fad is close to an end. You can make a case for a trade long or short, but as an investment here? ya right, Id pass after all it did just run 160 points
Remind us: what price was AAPL when you <i>first</i> predicted it would decline? Ummm, get of of <i>what</i>? Those who follow your advice have been short, not long, since ()?
If AAPL "only" grows at 20%/yr for 10 yrs its mkt cap will be about 1.35 trill. *If* the economy grows at 5%/yr for the next 10 yrs, GDP will be about 22.8 trill. At that point AAPL's mkt cap would be about 5.9% of GDP. Currently the largest mkt cap as a % of GDP is about 2.3%. I think that argues for overvaluation. It's not easy to grow 20% from the current base for 10 yrs (my definition of long-term in this case).
There's a few things in question here. Is apple a great company? Is it overvalued? I say yes and yes. iPad and iPod on verizon will make Apple some money, but they won't be as successful as the street believes. I think AAPL will touch $200/sh sometime this year.
At least, we have sombody actually calculating the figures. Apple has one large problem : it is a HARDware producing company. The funny guys at JP Morgan's prop desk just yesterday upgraded their target above 300 = means selling their invesntory into strength...
If two people are long 1000 shares of AAPL, one from 245 and one from 25, how much they make tomorrow is 1000 times the change in the share price tomorrow. The guy who is long from 25 doesn't make any more tomorrow because he made money in the past from a much lower price. So yes, cost-basis is irrelevant to how much you make or lose in the future - all that matters is the current market price and your future exit price.