Is a global depression really priced in already?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by NY_HOOD, Apr 3, 2020.

  1. varaamo

    varaamo

    Are there any data indicators to follow that can provide an early warning to the possibility of things not returning to normal in Q3?
     
    #21     Apr 3, 2020
  2. tbone44

    tbone44

    we're already in a recession dude ...and more than a tiny one...
     
    #22     Apr 3, 2020
    lovethetrade likes this.
  3. tbone44

    tbone44

    yea...a "U" or "L" recovery is much more likely...
     
    #23     Apr 3, 2020
  4. southall

    southall

    It is obvious the economy is going into recession for at least 2 quarters. They cant do anything to stop it.

    The only question is how long and how deep the recession will be.
     
    #24     Apr 3, 2020
  5. tbone44

    tbone44

    follow the 10 year Note !! a sustained and consistent rally into midyear / the fall will indicate a more likely "V" shaped recovery
     
    #25     Apr 3, 2020
    varaamo likes this.
  6. Specterx

    Specterx

    Every money manager in the world is asking the same question. Pretty much any relevant data is going to be instantly priced in, so you may as well monitor market prices.
     
    #26     Apr 3, 2020
    TooEffingOld and varaamo like this.
  7. Overnight

    Overnight

    #27     Apr 3, 2020
  8. tbone44

    tbone44

    small caps outperforming the wider indexes would be an early indicator as well...
     
    #28     Apr 3, 2020
    lovethetrade, varaamo and Cuddles like this.
  9. tbone44

    tbone44

    yup...but the market can be inefficient short term...studies have shown this...some information is discounted quickly...some the market digests over time...

    Short Term the market is not a wise, all-knowing processor of information and seer of the future…

    Short term, the market is an idiot.

    Mark Hulbert – June 2009
     
    #29     Apr 4, 2020
    lovethetrade likes this.
  10. tbone44

    tbone44

    yup...but the market can be inefficient short term...studies have shown this...some information is discounted quickly...some the market digests over time...

    Short Term the market is not a wise, all-knowing processor of information and seer of the future…

    Short term, the market is an idiot.

    Mark Hulbert – June 2009
     
    #30     Apr 4, 2020