Is a global depression really priced in already?

dont get excited i am quoting text books
i may not be a expert that you are

 

but benefits the largest debtor of them all....... the government

 

Oh, I get the sarcasm in that.

You got a lot of mouth for someone who admits to "trading for 20 years and still doesn't get it".

 

shocked? didnt you hear, bad news = good news now.

 

Terms like "depression" are too vague to be useful - and on top of that they're emotionally loaded, especially with fearful connotations, thus using them is an obstacle to rational analysis.

The market is pricing in a sharp drop in activity during Q2 (like 25-30% annualized) followed by a rapid rebound during Q3 and Q4, leaving overall GDP slightly down on the year but well-placed to return to trend. Some sectors (eg cruise lines) may be crippled, many others will leverage the opportunity to cut costs, increase efficiency, and rationalize businesses which may have become flabby, bloated and complacent during the long expansion.

The main risk to this view is that things don't return to normal in Q3, further impairing cashflows, shifting many more businesses into the danger zone where collapse is a possibility, and above all creating fear / reducing confidence to kick off another leg down in stocks (and commodities etc).

 

padman, puck with the duck, ya gotta pay the bill, lol.
anybody else got blisters on the ol' mouse hand? damnear had to, ahhh that feels better, put an ace band on de wrist.

have a good weekend everybody.

 

I think earnings guidence will be the next catalyst for selling. The market drops in waves after a short term bottom is formed.

 

lol, so where exactly are you right, then ? That markets are declining ? What kind of statement is that ? This is a force majeure crisis, not a bubbly economic crisis like the previous ones. Noone really participated in the run up of SP500, most of the cash was sidelines, there's heavy amounts of cash in savings and depos like never before. Why do you think the rates are so low ??

 

Agree.... market still has a long way to go down

Bottomfishing in a killer pandemic = epic stupidity

#crashunderway

 

you got a lot of mouth for someone who has nothing to say about technicals but only resorts to personal insults.
does not matter i may still have something to say since i am quoting text books:are you trying to say that stocks do not reflect economic activity