Is A Fed Cut Already Priced In?

Discussion in 'Forex' started by cstfx, Oct 31, 2007.

  1. cstfx


    Everyone is expecting a 25 bp rate cut this afternoon. So are the prices already relective of this? Is the dollar already sold off with this in mind? If so, if we get what we expect, does the dollar THEN take a nose dive if it has already been priced in? The past 3 weeks there has already been this anticipated rate cut. But the Fed has to be worried about the dollar rate. Or do they not cut, but have a statement worded that they will jump in whenever they want without warning like they used to?

    Here's a possible scenario: they cut, but then we have a co-ordinated CB intervention - we just had the G8 meeting 10 days ago. Maybe it was agreed to do the intervention AFTER the Fed cut so it wouldn't have been a wasted effort. Someone asked about CB interventions earlier and how they are not that effective anymore due to the size of the market, but even trying to move a few billion will affect the prices, even if only temporary, and send a signal that they will do it again if necessary.

    Just a thought as I have too much time on my hands for the next hour or so.
  2. Cesko


    At this point I can't see anything anymore what would help $$. If doomsayers are going to be right (for once) and USD collapses it wouldn't surprise me either.
  3. cstfx


    There was a Harris Poll that was released yesterday which asked the general public whether or not the weak dollar was good or bad for exports. Across a range of education types, more than half the people feed into the media hysteria about the dollar exploding and believe that the declining dollar is bad for US exports. This is not just from high school or less educated people but from the supposed educated people as well.

    Nothing to do with topic, just wanted to share.

    BTW, betting on a 1/4 point cut at most, think we might get a brief little dollar rally, so with the recent run-up this morning with the AUD, taken a short at 9260. I'll reverse the trade if it tops 9300.