I am still holding my 865 short call. We will see next week. Looking at the highs and lows of the week of March expiration and the first post-week: Hi was 830.50; low was 746.25. The action is the same as March--underlying exceeded the high and didn't pull back during the March period. As I stated before, the Mean Reversion theory doesn't hold all of the time. I will be looking to exit the short call on Monday. After Monday, it is all about gamma, not theta.
TA don't work everytime, especially in this crazy market wheer the support/resistance could easily being broken by bullshit news -example, there is a builder in monday come out and tell the whole world they "see" some good sales "in future" even they record the worst ever lost they have in the last 20 years, you know what, the market will surge 300 points like rocket without any rational. As I mentioned before, this market is always looking for "excuse" to go up regardless how bullshit is those so called the good news. For IC, I am still holding my short call, which already in the money, I will exit sometime next week when it meet my exit "criteria". Honestly, the position don't look good this time. This month will be one of the month (together with last Sept/Oct 2008) where all IC traders will remember for a long long time.
Does anyone subscribe to the max pain theory during expiration week?? http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php
Not necessarily. This month hasn't been all that dramatic for me yet, nor it will be even if the market keeps going up next week.
I didn't say that the market's move hasn't been dramatic, I said that for my IC positions it hasn't been. And the reson being that, firstly, I didn't enter them at the market bottom, but rather half way thru, and, secondly, I didn't overleverage, i.e. I sized my positions properly.