For ICs with a fairly small spread, this relationship means that you can (or hope to) arrive at a positive expectancy if you manage to construct your IC so that the spread, 'times', your probability of success at expiration is more than the debit you have to pay. Or Pr(BE)>= debit/spread. The problem of course, is to find or construct such an IC. If you found oneâyou are surely lucky, but if you managed to consistently construct such ICs, you are definitely skillful and should be able to benefit from a (long-run) positive expectancy you the ICs you constructed.
Geez, did you forget to take your QWERTY pills today? If you keep going all mentor on me, the ET guys in the little white coats are going to be all over you in a PM flash!
If you setup your IC in last Sept/Oct, I am sure you will loss big if you believe revert to mean is REAL. My take is if you hit your pre-define stop loss, then just take the loss and exit, no point to wait until you get really hurt.
yes, and I exit when it hit my stop loss.. I know Mark recommended "insurance" which can protect you in such incident, but insurance is really not my cup of tea as I just hate to see those strangle eat away my theta