Iron Condor on SPX

Discussion in 'Options' started by Sekiyo, May 30, 2025 at 4:49 PM.

  1. demoncore

    demoncore

    Vols are really sticky here (VIX 20). You think index vols will be 18 forward and you short 20 avg (P24, C16) and the mkt rallies 2%. You may win the participation trophy on predicting the vol-line but your short call at 6 is now 24. SK25 is still sticky D so you'll probably lose on vol-line as well as both strikes are now under the mkt. If it goes deeply against you then the vol-line you shorted won't mean a thing.

    I think all participants treat ICs the same; RV will keep spot within a range and the risk to the vert is worth the gamble. These aren't things that you can hedge dynamically.

    The words "roll or rolling" are verboten here.
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2025 at 10:34 AM
    newwurldmn, nbbo and Sekiyo like this.
  2. 2rosy

    2rosy

    What's the cost of an iron condor? Have you looked at doing a near similar position using event contracts? Kalshi is retail's edge
     
  3. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    10$ round turn maybe. Can check on IB they have event contract also.
     
  4. 2rosy

    2rosy

    I meant bid/offer
     
  5. demoncore

    demoncore


    They suck. Range digitals and no size.
     
  6. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    50 cents spread more or less ?
    The value depends ... Traded on yesterday for 3$
     
  7. 2rosy

    2rosy

    Anyone can be best bid / offer. Or do an rfq with a designated MM.
    Orr msg me and I'll post :sneaky:
     
    spy likes this.
  8. demoncore

    demoncore


    Good to know you're on there. I talked with them (here) and on a call discussing the potential for a strip of digitals instead of range digitals which have been done at IG and elsewhere. I have no interest in the range product. I'd be active if they offered a strip of digitals or touches.