hi. sorry about this simplistic thought, but here goes: when i buy an iron condor, isn't the cumulative probability of being in the money on at least one spread quite high? i mean as opposed to doing only one spread i mean, using hoadley's probability calculator, you can see that it may be 50-60% cumulative probability, where the premium is worth collecting i'm saying that: is it a safer bet to do only one spread, with a probability of being in the money of 30%, than doing two spreads, with a cumulative probability of being in the money of 50-60%? i mean 50-60% is basically 50/50, almost like a coin toss. sure you're collecting less premium, but you are less likely to be in the money, which seems like a better deal any comments?