having a strong currency as your won currency shields you from manipulation and speculation which would be at first sight beneficial. however, you may end up paying hefty risk premiums on your sovereign debt without being able to monetize your debt. if euro zone countries dont come the rescue of greece and ireland and to some extent to portugal and spain, i just dont see how they overcome the death spiral they're in. on one hand their economies are stagnant while on the other their debt obligations grow exponentially due to lack of adequate monetary policy. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRMkt.e8ujIo&pos=7
They simply send the bailout bill to Berlin and the Germans will happily bail out their European brethren
This is not possible. Complete misperception of some people not recognizing european dynamics. You think that the US would e.g. let California leave the union if they had financial problems? The other european countries will always pay for the debt. It is only the question how they will hide that they have done so (because they cannot admit publicly). They tolerated already some pretty strange behaviour of the Greek: Greece included money that was made with prostitution and illegal gambling into their balance sheet which they had to show in order to be allowed to enter EU. For the countries in question (Ireland, Greece) leaving EU would be suicide. Others (Iceland) just entered EU under the enormous pressure of the crisis because they finally realized there is no way without big friends.
I see Germany leaving the euro and the rest of the european beggars. jim rogers has predicted the collapse of the euro without a date.
California may leave the dollar. Scotland may leave the pound. The aliens may invade the earth. Make your bets with CDS, then pump your opinion in Bloomberg and Reuters. If you're lucky the rating agencies might even help you. However, Estonia will join the euro in 2011 as planned. http://www.bloomberg.com.au/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a_NS06dBfJgk
If Greece defaults, may be Germany will step in and buy whole Greece. So Greece will become the next German Länder
i am an european and always lived here, i am sure i understand the dynamics. and it doesnt have anything to do with cali/USA relationship. if greece or ireland are not able to fulfill their debt obligations, they'll have to leave the euro zone, unless of course they agree on cutting government spending by half. i dont envision how a democratically elected representative in greece can pass legislation to cut spending in half without a major civil war taking place, while on the other hand the german people (mostly xenophobic) will not tolerate their own government to pay the bill without major outbreaks of violence and civil unrest.