Discussion in 'Trading' started by Vinny Gigante, Jan 16, 2003.
how do you think it will affect the stock market when we annihilate saddam hussein?
Dollar, U.S. equity markets up.
North Korea makes more effort to normalize relationships with the USA.
And what if it turns into another Vietnam?
Not remotely possible. For too many reasons to even begin to explain.
Vietnam was Vietnam because:
1. We were getting involved with a civil war---not so with Iraq.
2. China continued to supply and fund the North Vietnamese.
3. The support for the Vietnamese war was not strong on a grass roots level in America.
4. America had no knowledge of how to fight a jungle based war.
5. In vietnam, we couldn't tell who the enemy was, as the IS soldiers were often confused who were the S. Vietnamese, and who were the N. Vietnamese.
1. Do the people of Iraq really support Saddam?
2. Who is going to fund Iraq's war effort?
3. There is support for a war with Iraq here at home, the polls show that.
4. We know how to fight a desert based war now, based on victories in the Gulf War of 1991, and also the Afghanastan situation.
5. We know who the enemy is......
The stock market shot up as soon as the last Gulf War started.
Since everybody knows this and the market doesn't usually repeat itself exactly - perhaps this time the market will rally in anticipation of the start of the war and have a moderate sell off on the actual news.
I agree that we cannot depend on a repeat. At the end of the first Gulf war, the market expected a return to relative normality and celebrated.
The after of this war much more murky and so far includes a plan for complete military occupation of Iraq- ie no return to the norm... Rather, we will have deeper uncertainty.
Actually, I think there was more uncertainty in the first war (the market doesn't like uncertainty). Back then the US didn't have as much confidence in its military as a result of Vietnam. People were predicting 100,000 US causalities. There were anti-war demonstrations everwhere in the US.
This time around it seem a little more certain militarily how this one will end. Arabs tend to get discouraged easily in war as soon as something goes against them (its Gods will). After seeing how they got the snot kicked out of them last time I can't imagine there being much enthusiasm even among the Republican Guards.
As far as the occupation goes, it would be self financing when they start pumping the Iraqi oil. The price of oil should drop in anticipation of the new supply on the market which would be good for the world economy. I can see $15-20 oil for the next 20 years. I thought I read that Iraq is 2nd in oil reserves next to Saudi Arabia.
I am guessing that Saddam will throw in the towel and head for the south of France when he is at the very end of his rope.
Net-net - a successful conclusion to this might bring the end of this bear market IMHO.
People , lets be real here.
With the weapons we have now this wont last more then a month .
If he uses chemical or Bio on us or Isreal , Iraq will be selling glass not oil .
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