https://www.businessinsider.com/her...ock-markets-when-the-world-goes-to-war-2017-8 first of all, what do we have, 1 in 20 chance this actually escalates into a real war? secondly, if it does, the market typically gets a 10-15% hair cut, followed by ~35% rise 12 months later. it's always BULLISH, the gov prints more money, get the military industrial machine going in full gear, corporate profits going thru the roof.. not to mention this time if we take over Iran we get all their oil! massive windfall for the US of A! it's not like we are gonna fight Russia or China... Iran has no nuke, we have zero chance to lose... it's a locked in bullish case. if you go to cash you get screwed because the more they print the more they dilute.
The day trump puts thousands of troops in and sends off missiles, oil will fall 10-15% in a single day!!!! This will last maybe a few weeks. Oh and welcome back, you were gone for how many years?
That's all I'm hearing is WW3. It's not going to happen. Less than 1 in 20 chance. No worries. Watch the markets erase all loses in the next 2 weeks.
Wish I traded futures. I know by tomorrow morning futures will have erased half their losses. By open another 1/4 will be erased and by the close bright green!!!!
S&P fell 20% in the three or four months before both Iraq wars. eg first iraq war the S&P fell from 370 to 294, Jun to September 1990 And that 294 is probably the closing low, the intra day low might have been lower. Ofcourse we know it then rallied both times afterwards.
You don't need WWIII to crash the economy, just a land mass 4x as large, a population 2x as large, and an army much bigger than our last adventurist fiasco.
That's then. Today we have the beautiful fed to save the market. They will cut rates to 0% once the markets drop 8% and then go negative rates after the bear comes in at 20% but before then they will release trillions and trillions of dollars to help prop the market up...remember this is not a free market place. The fed will get involved and make sure they continue to prop it up day after day.