How many times they will postpone the sanction? They know Iran loves sanction, so they can have reason the enrich uranium beyond 95%. I'm sure US do somthing in next election for democrates to win, because No way US gonna stop Iran If you can't beat your enemy, be his friend
Exactly. Furthermore, I bet Iran could work something out with a fellow OPEC member in the form of kickback to compensate for their lost oil revenues. And if peak oil is true, OPEC has nothing to lose from demand destruction caused by spiked oil prices.
come on mate... they don't give a shit about the money... but yeah they hate america's overwhelming influence / presence in the arab world, no question... having said that, when push comes to shove, they WILL be made to kiss the hand they can't cut, one more time, like it or not... and they'll keep hoping that the day will come, when they can chop your heads in the streets to the chants of 'Allah Akhbar', repeat 3 times... bunch of pathetic psychos... thats the reason they are in the shit they are in, but go explain that to them
Harry Newton writes Now comes word of a worrying new development in the oil biz. Ten members of the Kuwaiti National Assembly last week tabled a motion to link Kuwait's crude oil production with its oil reserve. After it is passed by parliament (and it probably will be) it will become law. What Kuwait is trying to do is to hold a little of its oil for future generations of Kuwaitis -- a totally admirable goal. What it means for us that Kuwait will cut its oil production from 2.65 million barrels per day to 2.25 million -- about 15%. In and of itself, this is not a huge cut. World production is 85 million barrels a day. But, if every other oil producer got this weird idea of holding something for their grandchildren, the price of oil is likely to skyrocket even further. I smell $100 a barrel.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060731/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_venezuela I seriously made my recent post about Ven and Iran before I found this just now. Speak of the devil.
I think you have the question ALL WRONG. What would happen if to the middle eastor Iran in particular, if they could / did not export their oil?
Except perhaps MASSIVE investment by many nations in alternative energy sources and infrastructure. The only reason why it hasn't happened already is cost. Oil is still cheap - relatively speaking. Someday its going to happen anyway, but OPEC wants to postpone that as long as possible, because when that day comes, they are back to the sand.
. casperCRF: The Iranian Navy has 3 Submarines and I think 20 or so large boats, how would they be able to close out the shipping lanes when they are faced head to head with the US Navy and others? The US Navy has about 290 ships and subs and about 4,000+ support aircraft, most of which I would bet are close to the middle east anyway. I just don't see this happening. **************** August 1, 2006 SouthAmerica: Maybe I can answer your question with the information that I wrote on this message board on April 18, 2006 as follows: *** April 18, 2006 SouthAmerica: Today President Bush made very clear in a speech at the White House that he would use any means â implying that he is ready to use nuclear weapons against Iran if necessary â the cowboy was trying to intimidate Iran into submission. If I was in the shoes of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran here is what I would do regarding the US/Iran nuclear crisis â I would escalate the crisis one notch at the time until some people in the US (people with some common sense) realize that we have an Idiot running things at the White House. Iran has the power to block the oil shipments from Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, and probably some oil from Saudi Arabia by blocking the Strait of Hormuz â the strait has only two 1 mile wide channels for marine traffic separated by a 2 mile wide buffer zone, and is the only sea passage to the open ocean for large areas of the petroleum exporting Persian Gulf States. Here is what I would do if I were in charge of the Iranian government today: 1) On April 28, 2006 on the date of the deadline given by the UN for Iran to give up their nuclear weapons program I would do what the North Koreans did to Japan more than once â I would launch a few missiles at the Strait of Hormuz when some oil tankers were going by â but I would be very careful not to hit one of the oil tankers with the missile. That would show to the world that you are not being intimidated by anyone. 2) If the United States escalated the crisis even further - first I would arrange for a ship full of oil to catch fire at one of the passing lanes of the Strait of Hormuz and also would spill some of the oil in the area â that would create a small fire in that area. 3) If the United States escalated even further the US/Iran nuclear game â possibly by the US use of small nuclear weapons against certain Iranian strategic targets - then I would go all the way and would fill the Strait of Hormuz with the biggest oil spill in world history and I would light it up as Saddam did to the oil fields of Kuwait in the first Gulf War in 1992 â the purpose would be to block any oil tanker from leaving that area of the world for a long time. At that point if any oil tanker did try to go by the Strait of Hormuz that tanker would be under direct missile attack. I wonder what would happen to a tanker if a tanker full of oil would receive a direct missile hit from Iran. What kind of damage would be done to the oil tanker? In the mean time what would happen to the price of oil in the world market? What would happen to the price of insurance for the oil tanker business? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=67053&perpage=6&pagenumber=9 *************** Kowboy: Southamerica? What would would be your simplfied solution to the middle east problem? Also what would have been your solution to the genocide comitted by Saddam? **************** SouthAmerica: If you have been reading my postings then you should know that I have no idea or solutions on how to fix the Middle East problems. The only thing that I can say is that it is their problem and they are the ones who will need to fix it. We canât fix it from the outside when we donât understand even their religious differences and their culture. By the way, there are no easy solutions for such a complex problem. When you check closely all the genocide that happened during the Saddam Hussein years â there are various causes for them â a long war with Iran â or people who try to assassinate Saddam and so on. I donât want to justify Saddamâs killings, but that was the only way to govern Iraq â they need a ruthless dictator to keep all the different sects from killing each other. Just look at what is going on in Iraq today â the place is a complete chaos and they are in the middle of a sectarian civil war. If Saddam still in power today Iraq would be in better shape. The world is not perfect and sometimes you have to settle for the least of all possible evils. Today Saddam Hussein has started looking like a moderate in that part of the world. ****************** Smart money: I haven't been following this thread, but have you all noticed that everytime Iran rattles its saber, the cost of oil goes up? They are in the business of selling oil. I think they're just creating tension so they can sell their oil at a higher price. They have no interest in halting the sale of oil, nor do they have any interest in damaging their infrastructure...I think its just how they do business. ***************** SouthAmerica: Here is an answer to your question that I wrote on this message board on April 2006. *** April 18, 2006 SouthAmerica: Iranâs President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is doing a terrific job for his country and the Iranian people â he found a new way to bring billions of extra US dollars to Iran without having to do much other than a little rhetoric. Letâs see if he can talk the price of oil up to $ 100.00 per barrel or even higher. Today the United States has become a foolâs paradise and not only the Iranians are going to profit from this âUS/Iran nuclear crisis,â but also most of the other Arab oil producing countries in the Middle East. Even Hugo Chavez is laughing all the way to the bank with the higher oil prices the suckers in the United States have to pay because of this escalating crisis between the US and Iran. Iranâs President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a genius â he found a way to increase the Iranian state oil revenue by billions of US dollars and all he has to do is keep increasing his rhetoric and make statements to scare a hell of the US government â by the way, as we know from the Iraq fiasco it does not take much these days to scare the American public. Today, even âPhantom WMDâ as in the Iraq case scares Americans â never mind the real thing as is the case with North Korea. I wonder if the Iranians are calculating how much extra money comes in into their coffers with each new speech from President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad â every time he goes up a notch on his rhetoric it is worth how many billions of US dollars to Iran in extra oil revenues? This is a double victory for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran over the United States: 1) His country has a massive inflow of extra revenue from selling its oil in world markets. The Iranians are laughing all the way to the bank â and another benefit is that the extra cash helps them pay for the cost of their nuclear weapons program. 2) He gets every American pissed on a daily basis every time they stop on a gas station to fill up the tank of their cars. As the oil prices are talked sky high with his rhetoric â oil prices might go to $ 100, $ 150, or if he goes all the way to even $ 200 per barrel and the average American will pay the price at their local gas station - $ 3, $ 4, $ 5, or even $ 6 dollars per gallon as some people pay today in Europe and in another places. I really like to see the faces of all the people who drive SUVâs in the United States when they stop at gas stations and they have to pay $ 6 dollars per gallon to fill up their gas tank. (SUCKERS) How many more billions of US dollars is Iran bringing in from extra oil revenues because of the rhetoric of their president regarding their nuclear program? Hugo Chavez should use the same strategy as the Iranian president and announce to the world a new nuclear program for Venezuela â even if he has no intention to do anything in that regard - the combined rhetoric of the president of Iran plus the new rhetoric from Hugo Chavez could bring oil prices to over $ 100 per barrel in no time â and also bring in billions of US dollars in extra oil revenue to the coffers of both countries. The suckers are out there and they are ready to hand over their hard earned money and all it takes to make the price of oil to go sky high is a little tough rhetoric about nuclear weapons â keep scaring the suckers to death and laugh all the way to the bank - taking the suckers money in this case it is like taking candy from a kid. If John Maynard Keynes still alive today I wonder what kind of name he would give to this particular game and massive transfer of wealth from the suckers (United States) to the people who scare them with scary rhetoric tales (Iran)? - Maybe "How to take money from the suckers Theory". http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=67053&perpage=6&pagenumber=9 .