Iran Turning Off The Oil Tap

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by eagle488, Dec 3, 2006.

  1. #11     Dec 3, 2006
  2. is she dead yet? i'd be surprised if she lasted more than a couple of yrs.
     
    #12     Dec 3, 2006
  3. #13     Dec 3, 2006
  4. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p42478042626

    Lets set the political and religious talk aside now and get on to the topic at hand.

    As the chart indicates, oil has jumped anywhere from 20-55% from the December low to the February high.

    The following chart indicates that oil has been consolidating since September. It needs to break above $64 for it to truly break out of its consolidation. Looking at the XOI, in the last ten years it has averaged a 19% gain from December to June.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&b=9&g=0&id=p27494270612

    The breakdown in the chart was because of hedge funds getting out of energy because of the lack of hurricanes and the Amaranth scandal. They wanted to show their investors that they were no longer in anything energy.

    Now we are past those events and everyone who wanted to sell has sold. I believe that the bottom was hit because of the consolidation stage I saw in the XOI, VDE, USO and XLE.

    So with all this said, I have concluded that the lowest price for oil will be $68 from now until February. The highest price will be $85. The average of the two is $76.5.

    There is no better time then to load up in the USO.

    The USO is especially attractive. I have confidence that this will get back to $70-$74 within 2-3 months.

    The XLE and the VDE are not attractive. These two appear to be channel traded for the last year and are at the top of their range. Unless they break solidly above the top of the range, then I would not consider them at this point in time.

    I would also look at small cap drillers/services/pipers/etc. that were wildly sold off during the summer months and have been in consolidation the last month or so.

    As I type this, there are more press releases going to hit in the morning. The weather wasnt as cold as I suspected in NYC, however, there was some storms in the midwest.

    Official: OPEC likely to cut oil production


    www.chinaview.cn 2006-12-02 21:44:05


    ABUJA, Dec. 2 (Xinhua) -- Current OPEC President and Nigerian Oil Minister Edmund Daukoru has said that further cut in oil production is likely during the organization's Dec. 14 meeting in the Nigerian capital of Abuja.

    "There is likely to be some further trimming. The actual amount (to be cut) would depend on circumstances," Daukoru said on Friday in Abuja when briefing reporters.

    The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had in October agreed to cut 1.2 million barrels per day since Nov.1 at an emergency meeting in Doha, Qatar.

    According to Daukoru, the international crude oil market no longer responds to geo-political tension like in the past, but rather to market fundamentals.

    World crude prices climbed above 61 dollars per barrel on Tuesday ahead of expected colder weather in the United States and an output cut by OPEC in mid-December.

    Oil stays firm above $63
    SYDNEY (Reuters) - Oil prices nudged higher on Monday, extending last week's rally of nearly 7 percent, after Saudi Arabia's oil minister said output should be cut because of high U.S. fuel stocks and following the first big U.S. winter snowstorm.

    U.S. crude was 12 cents higher at $63.55 a barrel and Brent crude settled on Friday 36 cents higher at $64.62.

    Since hitting a 17-month low of $54.86 on November 17, oil prices have risen to above $63 a barrel on Friday, bolstered by forecasts that cooler weather would stoke more heating demand in the United States and anticipation of deeper supply cuts.

    A major snowstorm hit the U.S. midwest on Friday, dropping the heaviest amounts in Illinois, private forecaster Meteorlogix said. Temperatures in the U.S., the world's largest consumer of heating oil, was expected to reach a low of between 10 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit in the next five days.

    Oil prices were pushed up after Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said markets were "significantly" oversupplied, a signal the heavyweight in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may favour a further cut to output at the group's meeting in two weeks.

    "The cartel's members seem to be leaning towards another cut in output at their December meeting," said Tobin Gorey, a commodity analyst at Commonwealth Bank.

    "Seems what we're witnessing from OPEC now is the pre-meeting staged debate that will make a cut a foregone conclusion."

    OPEC is scheduled to meet December 14 in Nigeria to assess the impact of the group's recent 1.2 million barrel per day cut, decided at an emergency meeting in October.

    While OPEC ministers in Libya and Kuwait have voiced their reluctance to make further oil-supply cuts, stating that crude prices were still holding firm above $60, analysts said their unwillingness would be overshadowed by the consensus among other OPEC nations to rein in supply.

    A Reuters survey showed the 10 OPEC members with output curbs had enforced two thirds of the pledged cuts in November. Led by Saudi Arabia, they cut output by 785,000 bpd, but were still pumping nearly 600,000 bpd over a 26.3 million bpd target.

    Although inventories are still relatively high, an unexpected fall in U.S. winter fuel stocks, according to official data, sparked a rally that took U.S. crude to a peak of $63.77 on Thursday.

    "Inventories are comfortable enough for a standard sort of winter but not much more. There's still time for the Northern winter to be either colder or longer than usual so supply can tighten some more," Gorey said.

    Analysts said oil prices have also been bolstered by a slump in the U.S. dollar, robust growth signals from the U.S. economy and news that OPEC's clout could grow with the addition of new members such as Angola and Ecuador.

    http://www.businessweek.com/magazin...?chan=top+news_top+news+index_global+business

    On a side note about Iraq, the invasion was definately a mistake that only helped countries like Iran and Venezuela.

    During December 2002, the United States imported 11.3 million barrels of oil from Iraq. In comparison, imports from other major OPEC oil-producing countries during December 2002 included:

    Saudi Arabia - 56.2 million barrels
    Venezuela 20.2 million barrels
    Nigeria 19.3 million barrels
    Kuwait - 5.9 million barrels
    Algeria - 1.2 million barrels

    Leading imports from non-OPEC countries during December 2002 included:

    Canada 46.2 million barrels
    Mexico 53.8 million barrels
    United Kingdom 11.7 million barrels
    Norway 4.5 million barrels

    Countries like Iran and Venezuela need oil prices as high as possible. When the US invaded Iraq, they essentially took off the table 11.3 million barrels per month in imports and 873 million barrels per year in output.

    In the early 1990s, then President George Bush had concluded that it was not a wise decision to occupy Iraq. Now lets remember that George Bush was a former CIA director and has much experience in these matters. George had a much larger multi-national force and had concluded, with all his experience in the CIA, that it was not a good idea to occupy Iraq.

    Indeed the reasoning behind why Iraq had invaded Kuwait was rational. It was because Kuwait was slant-drilling into Iraqi oil reserves. If Mexico was slant-drilling into Texas and the United Nations refused to intervene, what actions do you think the United States would take?

    Husseins methods were indeed harsh and that of a fierce heavy handed dictator. However, one can now see why he used this mafia-like techniques of ruling Iraq. The middle east is an out-of-control place. It has been like that for many decades and I dont feel it will ever truly like a Western democracy. The only way it appears that countries like this can be ruled is through mafia-like heavy handed extremist techniques. There is no one army that has ever succeeded in conquering this place in hundreds of years.

    A country like Israel will constantly have to be on the look-out and modernizing its forces. In fact, Israel has 3 submarines with nuclear weapons onboard US Harpoon missiles. 2 are constantly at sea at any moment in time with blue and gold teams very similiar to how the US operates its nuclear fleet.

    There are also about 50 Jericho II missiles at the Zekharyeh missile base, some 45 kilometers southeast of Tel Aviv in the Judean Hills. According to an analysis of satellite images, the missiles appear to be stored in caves. Upon warning, they would probably be dispersed on their transporter-erector launchers (TELs) so as not to be destroyed. The shorter-range Jericho I is deployed nearby in approximately equal numbers.

    I do not believe that there is any country, except for Israel, on the side of the United States. They are either neutral or clearly hostile.

    The invasion of Iraq was clearly futile and only confirms what other Armies of the past have found out the hard way and what former President George Bush had known. There is no way to occupy these nations with an army. It is simply not possible.
     
    #14     Dec 3, 2006
  5. dude ... you will either be a rich man interviewed in Barrons or a poor ET fool in a few months

    please whatever you do ... do not play "god"

    good luck to you

    :eek:
     
    #15     Dec 3, 2006
  6. Hehe. It may seem like it takes me a lot of time to type these long winded passages out. However, Im an extremely fast typer. I learned to type on an IBM Selectric in an era where there was no room for error.

    I typed the above passage in less then 10 minutes.

     
    #16     Dec 3, 2006
  7. Wow....I am impressed!!! She has more b _ _ _ s than Admadinjad and all his mullah puppeteers combined.

    I love when you can feel the conviction of belief in a human being (I felt more conviction in this lady in only two minutes than Hillary could make me feel in all her words with all her life).

    But the elites of the world love conflict, so mentalities like hers will likely lose out.
     
    #17     Dec 3, 2006
  8. #18     Dec 3, 2006
  9. NTB

    NTB

    She should be a world leader.
     
    #19     Dec 3, 2006
  10. LOL LOL LOL... you people never fail to amuse me. you find a muslim the mainstream props up and lo and behold she is an atheist. surprise surprise!!! from wiki: 'Recently, she sat in on a free-speech discussion at the University of Southern California, organized by the Ayn Rand Institute with Yaron Brook and Daniel Pipes as speakers." i thought you people didn't like self hating middle easterners? oh wait.. the ole double standard at work... too funny. if it were up to daniel pipes i would be sitting in a fema camp right now.
     
    #20     Dec 4, 2006