A Russian journalist has written for the Moscow Weekly stating that the US are preparing to srike Iran on 6th April 2007 and over the Easter Period. (see link at bottom). Normally I would not pay much attention to this but several points are worth noting. (1) The timing of the capture of the 15 British Personnel - possible human shield scenario or bargaining tools. (2) Russia has ordered civilian/military personnel back to Russia from the sites they were working at in the last few weeks. http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7006824873 (3) Biggest build up of US Naval Forces in the Persian Gulf with 2 aircraft carriers. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/27/AR2007032700610.html http://www.indymedia.org.uk/en/2007/03/366119.html
Iran's president is an extremely smart guy. By taking just 15 hostages he rised oil prices by 10% in several days Forbid import from China and Asia and stop importing oil from hostile countries. And the whole world will be on their knees in 3 weeks Instead of that they still think their strikes can help At least allow israel or Uk make those strikes. Don't do it by theirselves
you are right. go long oil. take 15 hostages. sell position out for profit. go short oil. release 15 hostages. take back short. bloody easy this oil trading. smart trade.
Oil is THE backbone of any developed economy. No matter what the reasons may be, we'll be brainwashed to believe that Iranians are 100% assholes & they pose a direct threat to the USA & UK. Next conflict/ww may very well be to gain control over oil in the Middle East. Wars have always been started to secure an economy of 1 state in an attempt to take away assets from another, let's not be childish & remember that. Just like in chess, just like in financial markets. Of course we, general public, will be sold yet another spin. EDIT: bullish on oil here, no matter what might happen short term, oil can't go down long term.
it will be interesting how the uk hostage situation develops over the the next few days as well. there is a lot of back and forth talk on the wires now even imadinnerjacket has entered the ring now with various comments about apologies etc etc. trouble is blair is in a corner here. he is due to step down in may and he does not want to go out with this crisis as a bit of a legacy on his stay in power. the thing is what can he do - nothing. same as before with the us embassy situation back in 79/80. from a trading point of view while this continues stick long of oil until they are definitely released.
I feel sorry for the people that have been captured, but... ANYONE ENTERING UK OR US WATERS WILL BE AT LEAST DETAINED. UK military knows that very well. What the hell were they doing there knowing the high probability outcome of either being captured or fired upon? Tell me with a 100% certainty that these guys were NOT used as bait? To support a military conflict governments need to get the support of their voters, as there isn't much point of starting a military conflict in the first place if those actions alone might lead to losing during next elections.