I think that if anybody is going to do anything in the near future, it will be the Israelis with US permission. They have a history of going in and taking care of the business nd are already hated throughout the region. Also, it is in their best interest to take care of the situation or at least try to. If they try to take out the sites and are unsuccessful, Iran will surely retaliate against Israel, which will give the US a pretext to go in and punish Iran. If they are successful, Iran will retaliate against Israel and then the US will punish Iran by destroying its infrastructure. There is nothing like causing 20 billion $$$ in damage to a country that is rich in oil. They will have to re build and spend that oil money doing it. Win, win situation. Iran's nuclear program is destroyed, 50% of infrastructure is in ruins and will keep the government of Iran busy rebuilding for the next 5 years, pumping oil to be able to buy equipment. Oil, after a nice spike to $100/barrel (which will allow the oil companies to profit nicely for a quarter or 2 and hence be in a happy and content stage - remember this is also important to GWB),will go down to $60 which will look ike a success after being at the $100 mark. And last but not least, Israel will once again illustrated that we can count on them and the Iranian nuclear thread would be eliminated. Case close, everybody is happy, ....but the Iranians. Well, this is what I think will happen. Hope this will help you in mapping any further log term trading strategies
Sax I hope you are right my friend, so long as Iran doesn't throw out a curve ball somewhere. I wonder if the Israelis can handle them alone at this stage in the game. Iran "seems" pretty strong these days.
Precisely how I feel. And Iran is not stupid and knows this, which is why they can make whatever statements they want.
Not at all...I'm saying that our soldiers are not cowards because they choose to use whatever advantage they can to limit their losses, and maximize losses for our enemies. As for Iran, we all know this isn't going anywhere, Iran is long oil, short the market...and trying to profit on the deal. They really have a money machine going on, though...all good things come to an end, and I'm sure their cash machine will too!
maybe you're over simplifying the problem. iran has been adding much fire power to their arsenal in the last decade, they are far from where iraq was when the us invaded. they have plenty of mid range missiles (chemical warheads) that could hit israel pretty bad and they have been consulting other countries in the middle east for support in case israel makes a move against them. in addition, the middle east is next to pakistan and india and both have a considerable nuclear arsenal. word is, the preventive strike would have to use nuclear bombs to blast the natanz facilities in iran because they are far bellow ground level, and that would be the first time, a nuclear device would be used since world war II. the already fragile status quo in the region would be surely shaken and the tremendous fire power available would surely came into play. remember that right after URSS collapsed, much of nuclear material and knowhow went to neighboring countries, such as pakistan, which despite its present alliance with us, has a leader that is heavily criticized internally and might be overthrown by a radical islamist, especially if if the iran attack is perceived as a maneuver by the occident to anihilate the arab world, which could be infered if natanz is bombed with nuclear fire power. qui pro quo.
No need for nuclear bombs this time around. Mops will do the job. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massive_Ordnance_Penetrator
US oil companies only control about 15% of world market....rest is controlled by country owned companies, Aramco, etc etc.... Iran is broke....importing 40% or more of gasoline....refineries not operating for lack of funds to update.....tough economic times for common man.....US is pushing for an internal revolt....Pres NutJob is not well liked.....spends money on weapons... Isreal is not as strong as used to be.....Lebanon skirmishes last summer showed real weakness.....unsure, tentative.... Tide is beginning to turn against Islamic Fascist.....notice France's leading candidate is Pro American right winger....French realize they allowed too many Muslims and blacks into country adn they are not assimilating as thought....causing trouble....French can be brutal.....NO ACLU over there....wrap a wire around your testicles and ask a few question regarding your plans while visiting our wine country, LOL.....Same with Brits.... I wonder what the response would be if OPEC offered each adult Jew in Isreal $5,000,000 each to migrate out of Isreal? How many would accept? Just do a LBO of the entire country, LOL... When Isreal formed in 1948 some Jews went there....but the vast majority did not go there.....spread all over the world with most in US.... I think there are more Jews in NY than Tel Aviv??? The point being: It would be far cheaper.....save thousands of lives.....and force the sub-human barbaric Muslims to get civilized or die out...US forces completely out of region.... You are on your own....want to invade somebody....go ahead....need some food...grow it....want to migrate/visit the US...forget it....we are closed till further notice.... Oh...and we only pay $35/bbl for oil..... WE all forget....we are the WalMart of the world..... And, we should make Mexico the 51st state....takes care of a lot of problems.... SteveD