the IMF figure is based on how much it would take to get the current account out of defict. If you think that's going to happen, think again
It is according to PPP. If you have another reason to believe its overvalued I will be glad to hear. The IMF figure its ridiculous since I dont think anytime in history a deficit this big turned around completly
How can a currency about to be griped by a vicious inflationary cycle ever be "over valued"? without cheap Chinese labor american interest rates would be sky high by now.
Should've been more specific. "Everybody"- news media "majority"- people who believe anything they see in the news and take advice from tv analysts.
Thank you Jaime, that was my point. Economist ran a cover, The Disappearing Dollar the week of Dec 4, 2004, euro went another 400 ticks higher in the next two weeks and then broke 2000 ticks in the next year. Or the economsit cover Drowing in Oil from Feb 1999, at the bottom of the oil move.
What about the times they got it right?Have you backtested them?The 'media is always wrong' seem biased and generalized research to me
Yes, maybe OPEC will follow Iran's lead and switch to Euros, resulting in all of their USD denominated assets taking a nose dive! Hardly!
I think "the media is always wrong" isn't true. But "the media changes it's story from day to day" is. Besides, how many times have we all heard things like "Gold rose today on concerns the US economy was accelerating and inflationary pressures were persisting." And then the next day "Gold rose today on economic slowdown possibilities in the US. The metal correlates to a lower dollar....blah blah" They make up shit all the time. It's hilarious. You wanna follow the media? Start a journal here. We'd all find it very entertaining.
i have not, but others have http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/03/the_magazine_co.html http://www.thestreet.com/comment/cfeatures/1242603.html http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2006/05/30/spotting-the-end-of-a-trend.aspx http://www.iht.com/articles/1996/03/09/contro.t.php results of quick Google search