This is the part I don't understand, why can't those ships go around the Starit of Hormuz? If the focus is on that narrow 30 m (or was 100 m) gap, all we need is to have the ships go around it. It's more time, and labor for the ship crews, but we don't have an urgency for oil, we have no shortage, so worst case scenario, it's a 1 week delay of supply. I mean, look at the front mth. crude oil contract, it's going up drastically, I don't get it. Is it the 4.6 M export from Iran? If so I can dig it. But Strait of Hormuz blockade, I don't see how can that affect anyone.
They load crude from Gulf terminals, such as those on the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. You cannot get to them without transiting the Straits. We also have numerous Navy ships including two carrier groups in the Gulf now and they also will have to go through the Straits of Hormuz to get out. Could get a bit dicey. The Pentagon no doubt thinks they could take out Iran's missile and naval forces with air and sea strikes and thereby neutralize its ability to block the Straits. They did a war game a few years back to test that theory, and put a loose cannon naval officer in charge of the "Iranian" forces. He supposedly used massed sea skimming anti-ship missile barrages to defeat the Navy forces. The brass claimed he violated the rules of the game and hushed it up, but it cannot be ignored.
http://worldatlas.com/aatlas/infopage/hormuz.htm From this map, the news said if they have to, they have to go an extra 20+ miles to avoid Strait of Hormuz. But looking at that map, where is the alternative route for these ships?
Good analysis AAA. As for the war games, you know that the Iranians followed that one very closely and probably the loose cannon got his idea from moles inside the Iranian strategy planners. From what I understand, Iran has plans to completely block that section of the waterways, irrespective of whether Tehran is wiped out or not. Anyway, it is always dangerous to throw stones when you live in glass houses.
Up until the first Gulf war, we were wary of having much in the way of naval assets in the Gulf. Iran is known to have Chinese Silkworm missiles which could easily take out even a big ship. They also have diesel subs, which are very quiet. They don't have to get that close to launch wake-homing torpedoes, which cannot be defeated. Plus Iran has investd in next generation warfare by stocking up on small patrol boats. They are no match for our ships, but as Stalin said, quantity has a quality of its own. Even a carrier is not going to defeat 75 missiles launched at it simultaneously. All that said, I don't doubt we could pretty much render them defenseless, just as we did Saddam. It's just a matter of deciding the tradeoff between losing pilots and upping the ante by using ICBM's. The Iranians need to understand, and they probably don't, that if they were to sink a carrier or even a couple of destroyers, they would likely be on the receiving end of half a dozen sub-launched nuclear missiles. I think the American people have just about had it with Iran and are far more ready to see them destroyed than elite opinion recognizes.
AAA, When you mean the American people, I think you are refering to the chimpboy's followers with brown noses. Most of the US voting public spoke with their vote during the recent elections. It is time to get off trying to intimidate everyone and start acting like civilized humans, which we under the shrub have not. We have made Iran powerful by taking out his enemies and we are there screwing around in their neighborhood. I think they have the right to defend their country against rogues like chimpboy and the neoclowns.
I seriously doubt US will use nuke missiles or any ICBM. The amt. of radiation dust will spread around that region, and depends on wind speed, even their ally israel can be affected. USAtoday post a study on dirty bomb, they claim if a dirty bomb goes off in 1 state, the wind speed can made the dust travel 4 states. And that's just a dirty bomb. What would be the spread of radiation dust from a handful of nuke? So I can't see how can that happen