IPII - Hurricane play started?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by topdown, Mar 22, 2007.

  1. topdown


    Check a 2-year chart on IPII. Every spring for the past 2 years this thing has shot up huge ahead of Hurricane Season. Up 10% today on 5x it's normal volume. The move may have just begun. In '05 it went from $6 to $26 from April to June, in '06 it went from $16 to $28 March to April. I'm in today at $8.28.

    Business Summary:

    Imperial Industries, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and distribution of building materials to building materials dealers and others in the southeast United States. It produces and distributes pool finish coatings, roof tile mortar, stucco, and plaster products, as well as gypsum wallboard, roofing, and insulation products. The company's pool finish products are used as coatings for below ground swimming pools; roof tile mortar is used to adhere cement roof tiles to the roof; stucco products are used as a finishing coat to exterior surfaces; and plaster is used to finish interiors of structures. It sells its products to contractors, subcontractors, and building materials dealers that provide building materials for the construction of residential, commercial, and industrial buildings and swimming pools. The company was founded in 1937 and is based in Pompano Beach, Florida.
  2. S2007S


    its up today on a forecast that is showing that there may be 15 or so hurricanes.


    last year they were wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy off on their predictions...........................
  3. I want to know how come you guys cant post this stuff up BEFORE it runs. I just looked at it and it hit the top Bollinger Band today. It would have been nice to know a few days ago...
  4. topdown


    And who cares about the actual storms? 15 hurricanes predicted that will be in the news from now until summer. Buy the rumor, sell the news, right? And as a "bonus", if the storms do come, this stock should really take off!

    It is kinda morbid to take profits on a hurricane, so I hereby pledge to donate 10% of any proceeds from this trade to the American Red Cross should 15 hurricanes actually hit the U.S.
  5. topdown


    Sorry, MS - It just popped up in a screen I did this evening and that made me check the story. What did the Bollinger's say the last 2 run-ups? Sometimes you gotta overlook the short term data for the intermediate or longer term play.
  6. I looked at this a little closer, but did not compare actual dates. It appears this company does not have an earnings call, but an annual report that is published on March 31st (may be sooner this year) and 10-Q in May.

    In reviewing the data, it appears the annual report may have been the reason behind the price spike in past years. This year someone is attempting to trade before the annual report. The annual report might have leaked OR maybe someone purposely drove the price up so they could short it knowing that the annual report will be poor OR someone is trading it up believing that the annual report will be better then expected, etc etc etc

    This company is heavily levered to the housing industry especially in places like Southern Florida. The float also appears to be about 2.2 million which is very small.

    The price of the stock may already be baked into the annual report and so even if the annual report is bad it may rise further OR it could go the other way and dump down.

    Judging by the extremely weak guidance from home builders, you know that the annual report will not contain bullish ideas of the future nor will contain a record setting profit.

    At this point, anything can happen when that annual report comes out. It could definately go either way. However, if I were going to make a firm decision I would have to say it will go higher no matter what is contained in the annual report. The reason being is that the price has come down significantly in the last year and the gloom/doom may be already baked into the stock.

    This is definately a gamble and my advice should not be replied upon.
  7. You caught me in the middle of editing it. Its the morning still and Im working at a mile a minute. Read my response again. I sure wish you guys wouldnt read it so fast and give me a chance to edit it.
  8. Top D That's so magnanimous of you! You pledge
    10% of any proceeds from this trade to the American Red Cross should 15 hurricanes actually hit the U.S.

    What if you double your money and only 9 storms hit!

    >> I'm embarrassed to say everytime an idea comes up I groan a bit been there done that. Alas it is true these stocks move on innuendo I don't have the time to dig through last years crap right now but I remember more than one hurricane play... maybe this can evolve into the hurricane Investment Corner... and I can come back over the weekend with some ideas... shingling comes to mind..... Also short the insurers they had such a nice rise after no storms last year. Last year they did blow the prediction of storms big time but this year they have the added benefit of an El Nina situation in the oceans which is never good. Saw inconvenient Truth last night by the way. Fell asleep.
  9. topdown


    You're right Stoney - O.K. I revise my pledge to also include 10% of all profits over 100% of initial investment - regardless of the quantity of storms. (And that may not be chump change as this could be a triple!)
  10. topdown


    Good Idea - A few Hurricane "quick picks":

    HSOA - Recovery / Restoration, remodeling service.

    BLDR - Wholesale residential building supply, primarily located in SE U.S.

    ADDL (OTCBB) - Roofing, waterproofing contractor.
    #10     Mar 24, 2007