Bonds and cash are making negative real returns after inflation and taxes. Stocks have tanked, and are basically flat over the last 10 years. Real estate is in the toilet. Commodities have just had a huge correction. It seems to me that the typical buy & hold investor has got royally shafted, and there is no reliable avenue to turn to. Even stockpicking and value investing has hit the skids, although they will both pick up and do well once the bear is over. Now if we look at the approaches that are often frowned upon by conventional wisdom, they are all doing really well: Short selling - a cornucopia of opportunities in the last 2 years. Long/short equity - plenty of opportunities to add value in recent years Position trading/global macro - best trading environment for years Daytrading - plenty of volatility and action intraday Swing trading - again, plenty of moves I feel really sorry for the typical amateur investors, they really have nowhere sensible to turn. It seems only traders can make money nowadays.
amazingly they might just keep the administration in power that led them to this point. if they do they get what they deserve.
What would Warren Buffet do? I find it irritating how the market moves so much faster now than it used to. People have pointed this out before but moves that used to take a week or two now take a day or two because of automation. You pretty much have to be a day trader and/or babysit all swing positions at this point. On the other hand, the volatility is great for some.
How have really conservative investors been doing? Earlier the pension funds were not investing in hedge funds etc - but have recently been using more advanced investments and assumed more risk, I gather. Are institutional investors doing great?
"Stocks have tanked, and are basically flat over the last 10 years." You didn't bother to look at small and mid caps. From the closing low (310) in October, 1998 the Russell 2000 is up 132%. From the closing low (128) in October, 1998 the S&P Small Cap Index is up 195%. From the closing low (275) in October, 1998 the S&P Mid Cap Index is up 185%. Some buy and holder types have done quite well over the last 10 years.
Good point. Small caps & value stocks were neglected during the dot.com boom, so it makes sense they outperformed the tech-laden big cap S&P with its huge P/E multiple.