I'll keep it as simple as possible. Once markets enter a bear market which is a decline of 20%, locate the date it began and plot 2 years ahead. Mark that date to start dollar cost averaging the SPY. Do that for 6 months. Then wait 2 years and begin dollar cost averaging out for 6 months. Repeat for 20 years. This outperforms 99% of traders and fund portfolio managers.
none of my figures are ever accurate, but the point is, it's hard to beat the mkt. If it was easy, everybody would be doing it. But the original question of what's better ES or SPY is also one that I would be interested in hearing someone more knowledgable than me answer. So thanks for getting me thinking again.
Interesting and not very far from what I do. Top was 1375 less 20% that places us at 1100 so based on your strategy the DCA began last week for a first position. Funny enough that first position is aprox 75 points green now, albeit on just 1 unit. Any input on how to spread the additional buys and what kind of position management to use, max risk etc ? Thank you for your post you presented a very interesting variable I had not used before, time.
Dollar cost averaging is probably the best way to invest in spy. No need to be a hero. Start at 30, investing every year the same amount no matter what would probably bring an astonishing sum of money by the time you are set to retire. I don't see the downside to DCA.
Is this a buy-and-forget process? I don't see anything regarding selling. If so, I don't see there is much point in buying anything other than extreme extreme extreme lows, like under 800 or so. Although it remains to be seen if that will still feel "extreme" a couple of years from now.
The only downside, assuming you don't use margin, is that you get filled on a very small position then the rest of your money never got invested and you are now back to square one.
Some SPX Levels I had in mind for buying 1000 850 600 500 450 300 Yes, a little dramatic but better be safe than sorry, the idea is to not lose.