Investing Catechism

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by nitro, Oct 23, 2009.

  1. nitro

    nitro

    #321     Aug 12, 2015
  2. nitro

    nitro

    Here is why you dont need people telling you how to invest. When the market is going higher, you don't need their advice, When it is so obvious that the thing is on a cloud and needs to be sold, they cant tell you that because it would cause a stampede and massive selloffs.

    Stop watching investing TV because it is the mouthpiece of Wall Street and huge ponzi schemers, It is bad for your wealth.

    "For years, Piper Jaffray has been one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street, and with good reason.

    This week, though, amid market carnage not seen since the financial crisis, the firm has decided it's seen enough.

    Piper finally slashed its uber-optimistic market call for 2015, cutting its S&P 500 price target from what now seems an unreachable 2,350 all the way down to 2,135...."


    http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/24/one-...-in-the-towel.html?trknav=homestack:topnews:3
     
    #322     Aug 24, 2015
  3. nitro

    nitro

    Millennials are just saying no to stocks, sticking with cash

    http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/24/more-millennials-say-no-to-stocks-and-advisors-adapt.html

    That is incorrect. It should be, Millenials invest like Warren Buffet:

    1. Monopolies [Where government won't intervene]
    2. Cash Machines
    3. Great Management
    4. Buy (companies that meet the three criteria above) when there is blood on the street. Sell a large portion of them when everyone is euphoric and raise cash.
    5. To keep it a little interesting, throw in a risky but possible skyrocket stock from high tech in the mix that meet some of the above top three principles. Still follow 1-4
    In 25 years, you will pay for your kids college education and down payment for a house. Boring stuff, but it mostly works.
     
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2015
    #323     Aug 24, 2015
  4. JTrades

    JTrades

    You really know how to keep a thread going!
     
    #324     Aug 24, 2015
  5. nitro

    nitro

    Do or do not. There is no try.

     
    #325     Aug 24, 2015
  6. nitro

    nitro

    This is perhaps the best reply ever given to this question. It is not completely satisfying because it still requires the greater fool theory in cases like Amazon. Still, it does explain something true about modern markets

    Morgan Stanley's stock market guru explains why everything you know is worthless

    "...Measurements like Okun's Law, the Phillips Curve, the Taylor Rule, Shiller PE, and others are thrown out as ways to point out obvious disconnects between today's world and historical economic or profit relationships..."

    http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanleys-adam-parker-market-outlook-2015-9
     
    #326     Oct 3, 2015
  7. nitro

    nitro

    Here is a very important concept to understand. If you view P/E by itself without taking into consideration the growth curve a company is in, you miss out on just about every MSFT in 1985.

    Don't worry about P/E. Worry about P/E in relation to growth:

    whichgrowth.png


    "...Take the example of gene-sequencing firm Illumina Inc. (ILMN) — about as pure a play on exponential growth as you’ll find in publicly traded markets. Between 1990 and 2001, more than 200 scientists joined forces in a $3-billion effort to sequence human DNA.

    Since then, the price of sequencing a human genome has fallen exponentially from $3 billion to less than $10,000.

    That rate of price drop was faster than what is predicted by “Moore’s Law.”

    Today, Illumina trades at a price-earnings (P/E) ratio of 79 — a level value investors cannot stomach.

    But looking at Illumina through the eyes of an exponential investor, you get a different picture...."

    http://finance.townhall.com/columni...n-generate-massive-returns-n1979173/page/full
     
    #327     Dec 17, 2015
  8. nitro

    nitro

  9. nitro

    nitro

  10. nitro

    nitro

    Probably the single most important message from an investment point of view is to understand the messate the market itself is sending. You can discern this by watching what instruments "get correlated".

    For example, US indices and Gold and Silver are both going up, with Oil going down. Think about hat for a minute and you will see that "state" only makes sense in only one scenario:

    • Money is fleeing other countries, and liquidity is everything in markets.
    • Fear is rising
    That is playing out. Europe is nearly at a breaking point, with Grexit the first grain of sand hitting the pile, Brexit and now Italian banks teetering on bankruptcy, and DeutschBank in the middle of it all.

    So money is escaping Europe providing liquidity here, and in order to safeguard against currency loses, money is going into the ultimate currency: Gold and other metals in general.

    Should an investor care why stocks are going higher as long as they are going higher? You betcha, because when liquidity turns, it is going the other direction, hard. In other words, markets are going higher for structural reasons, not fundamental ones.

    And that is dangerous.
     
    #330     Jul 10, 2016