Investing Catechism

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by nitro, Oct 23, 2009.

  1. It's the perfect tool for dollar cost averaging every month and earning a subsidy which will in turn give you a higher chance of retiring with much more income than the average schmo.
     
    #151     Oct 29, 2009
  2. nitro

    nitro

    I recommend investors closely track dividend payout ratios:

    http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/alerts/glossary.asp?TermID=41

    Yahoo provides this number. For example:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GE

    For those that believe that investing is essentially a dividend capture, as I do, then this article would have to be amended, but it is important to understand how other investors think about this number.
     
    #152     Oct 29, 2009
  3. nitro

    nitro

    Quiz:

    BRK-A buys BNI. BNI pays 2.1% Div Yield. BRK-B splits 50:1. It pays no dividend.

    Do you then buy BRK-B if you loved BNI?
     
    #153     Nov 3, 2009
  4. nitro

    nitro

    Let's do a little math.

    There are 340 million shares outstanding in BNI. There is a $1.60 per share dividend yield. So per quarter, BNI pays $136,000,000 or $544,000,000 per year ( a little less since a small fraction of the float is short).

    Now, the tangible book value of BNI before the BRK takeover is about $34.85. So buffet is essentially paying $66 per share for BNI, or $66 * 340 million shares = $22,440,000,000

    Since he doesn't have to pay a dividend anymore, he can recoup that $22B in

    $22,440,000,000 / $544,000,000 = 41 years

    if the company made no money for 41 straight years (a silly assumption, since companies only pay dividends when they make money). In fact, BNI generates about $1.2 billion after capital expenditures a year, so teh term to recoup that investment of $22B is cut in half, again assuming a company whose earnings profile stays indentical to the recent past.

    Imo, if you want to guess the next Buffet takeover, look for a company that pays a nice dividend yield that he can wipe out, generates approximately $1 to $2B of cash a year after capital expenditures, is trading approximately 2x tangible book value, has no more than four competitors in it's market, if any, and someone that plays a banjo can understand the business.
     
    #154     Nov 3, 2009
  5. You also have to assume, that Warren Buffet is buying on growth as well. So not only is his rate of return increased because the dividends the company generates can go to Berk. The amount the company generates goes up.

    The companies 5 year EPS growth rates has been 23%

    So in 20 years a compounded 23% increase by 4 times will be less than 21 years.

    Because if burlington is earning 1.2 Billion or so.

    Than 20 years from now it will be earning at least twice that amount maybe even more.

    It will take more like 13-15 years for Berk to recoup their initial investment.

    But, while Berk is receiving 1.2 Billion a year from Berlington. Berk doesn't just sit on cash. Buffet buys even more cash producing investments which increases the velocity of Berk's money.

    They'll either buy more stock, increase their investments in the companies they currently own. Or they will put that 1.2 Billion to work in an investment that will normally generate 8% or more.

    8% compounded on 1.2 Billion with an annual addition of 1.2 Billion is how much over a period of 20 years?

    *Drum Beat*
    $64,900,654,302.98
    64Billion in 20 years
    That's only if they constantly reinvest 1.2 billion.
    Essentially I did not factor the growth of earnings from BNI which would make the cash cow's compound rate even larger.
     
    #155     Nov 4, 2009
  6. nitro

    nitro

    Good analysis.

     
    #156     Nov 4, 2009
  7. nitro

    nitro

    CSCO beats, growth this, takeout that, awesome.

    Wait, I go to yahoo, check what I would get for sticking my neck out, and

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CSCO

    ZERO.

    Mature business. $30B in cash. No dividend. What a joke.
     
    #157     Nov 4, 2009
  8. lol, I guess your right. Yahoo's P/E multiples are at 165.1

    A joke, that company isn't worth that much. I wonder how traders can bid up a company so high for being worth so little.

    Screw...Yahoo buy Google their P/E ratio is 34.7 something reasonable unlike that crappy company we call Yahoo. The prior Yahoo CEO *Cough* Jerry Yang should be smacked for crappy management and not being able to develop effective means to generate cash flow.

    This company will blow :eek:
     
    #158     Nov 5, 2009
  9. Wow, no one wants to argue with you anymore. Go figure, they just realized how ignorant they are.
     
    #159     Nov 5, 2009
  10. sprstpd

    sprstpd

    Yes, you'd be poor having invested in them. What a joke! I can't stand it when companies make me money!
     
    #160     Nov 5, 2009