Excellent question! My plan is to scalp the first 1/2 at +10 and try to catch a trend with the second half. With 3 contracts, I would scalp 2 contracts and let the third ride. What I need to do moving forward (or one could argue I should have been doing all along) is to start incorporating volatility into my stops. I've been pretty "loose" about setting discretionary stops with 2 contracts. Tx!
Looking through your trades, it looks like you would have done much better if you hadn't used the "limit scalp" at all, and traded both contracts how you traded the second one. This would have made your very impressive results much more impressive. Have you thought about that?
sticking to a plan is the best thing a trader can do. Your results today are much more impressing..seeing that you have the discipline and don't get greedy. Stick with your plan and life won't be unfair to you.
Hey folks, Too choppy for this trader. I'm guessing will see more of the same with FOMC mtg announcement on Wed. and economic news due out later in the week. YM is in a little up channel on the 60m and 180m chart. On the daily, price looks to be in a fib retracement zone (.50-.618). I'm going to stay in cash through the Fed Announcement and see if a trend develops. ie do we keep going higher through the .618 or does .618 become an area of resistance and price breaks the 60min channel?
Hey PersistentTradr, I've been looking at the scalp/discretionary thing closer, and here's what I came up with. This uses the data from your week 19 chart http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1656383 . As you take one position and then treat it as two distinct halves, trying to scalp 10 with the first half and trying to catch a trend with the second, it's easy to figure out how each half is doing. I'd be interested to hear any input you have about it. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ First, here it is assuming EVERY SINGLE scalp came through at 10 pt: 49 scalp contracts at 100% success: 49 contracts at $50 = $2,450 Commission= -$178.85 Profit from scalps: $2,271.15 Profit from 49 discretionary contracts (Total actual profits minus profit from scalps)): $5,851.15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Here it is assuming a more realistic 80% scalp success rate, and a 10 pt stop. (All the scalps I saw were 10 pt except one 15, and I saw some losses greater than 10, but this should give you some idea.): 49 scalp contracts at 80% success: 39 contracts at $50= $1,950 10 contracts at -$50= -$500 Commission= -$178.85 Profit from scalps: $1,271.15 Profit from 49 discretionary contracts (Total actual profits minus profit from scalps)): $6,851.15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Assuming the above (80% scalp success rate and 10 pt stop on the scalps): Total profit, actual: $8,122.30 Total profit if both contracts had been traded as discretionary: $13,702.30 Total profit if both contracts had been traded as scalps: $2542.30 End balance, actual: $23,122.30 End balance if both contracts had been traded as discretionary: $28,702.30 Total percent profit, actual: 54% Total percent profit if both contracts had been traded as discretionary: 91% Total percent profit from "scalp half of account": 17% Weekly compounded percent, actual: 2.30% Weekly compounded percent if both contracts had been traded as discretionary: 3.47% Weekly compounded percent of "scalp half of account": 0.83% (Weekly compounded percent includes all 19 weeks, including the four weeks with no activity.) From the track record you posted I feel you have shown that your amazing results have been due almost entirely to the discretionary half of your contracts. Further, you have shown that these discretionary trades consistently work. I feel that you could trade your entire account as such with much greater results and almost no additional risk.
Tx for the post K! My short answer is there is some emotional/psychological comfort after scalping those first 10pts that contributes to the discretionary results. Thus, I'm not so sure I would have been able to maintain the same discipline, nor achieve the same results, had I been leaving the whole position on the table.
* Lots of chopping around as everyone waits for the "big" FOMC announcement. * GDP came out strong, but, economists are skeptical (as they should be). Businesses/CEOs are pessimistic about future growth and they know more about current economic conditions then economists do ;-) * Rest of the data looks mixed. * Google hitting $700?????? I still can't understand how Google can have a market cap > $200 billion (US). But it does and I don't own it
Down day today. I grabbed a few pts during the a.m. but that was it. Things got choppy through the mid-session and things just must moved really fast after 3pm and I missed the short opportunity. (1) +10 (1) +11
great work today. I am wondering when you enter a position does it go in your favour most of the time or does it go against you a few ticks then starts to go in ur favour? and if you make sure that your entry is always at a point where it starts off in ur favor.. how do you determine that. Everytime I enter a position it goes against me about on average 1.5ES points before coming back in my favour.. and Id really like to tweak that so I don't go through the mental torture .
Hey fish, Unfortunately I don't think I'll have a great answer for you. I generally take heat on most orders--especially mkt orders in volatile market conditions. Yesterdays trade there was quite a bit of heat--about 15 pts. However, the bar I entered on never closed above the recent swing high (my stop area) so I stuck with it. In general, I always look for my stop area before placing a trade. I try not to place trades when my stop area is > 20pts in the YM (2pts in the ES). Knowing where that stop area is before I place the trade helps out a lot with the mental games