Inverted Yield Curve

Discussion in 'Economics' started by myminitrading, Nov 13, 2006.

  1. Everyone is down playing this, the inversion is getting worse. Here we sit with massive deficits, an inverted yield curve.


    My gosh what a mess we have.

    Tax the rich
     
  2. anomaly

    anomaly

    Is it not a thing to be grateful for? If long rates were higher then wouldn't financing those deficits be rather more difficult?

    Apologies if I am missing something.
     
  3. empee

    empee

    You need to watch CNBC. Somehow this is a good thing(tm) and its different this time. How insightful!
     
  4. anomaly

    anomaly

    Well we don't get CNBC in the UK. I realise that I am probably missing something, so please explain why things would be better for you lot if all else were unchanged and the yield curve spontaneously steepened 100bps 2s-30s.
     
  5. socalpt

    socalpt

  6. TYX 4.71, TNX 4.617, FVX 4.607, UST2YR 4.77.

    DOESN,T LOOK INVERTED TO ME
     
  7. S2007S

    S2007S

    NOVEMBER 13.

    The yield curve became more inverted this week, with the negative differential between the 3-month and the 10-year at -49 basis points and a -76 basis point differential between the 10-year and the Feds fund rate. According to a Fed paper, that level of an inversion suggests there is now an over 40% probability of recession next year. This same model only predicted a 50% chance of recession in 2000, and as the paper authors acknowledge, the model probably understates risk in recent decades.


    http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/20452
     
  8. S2007S

    S2007S

    market continues to trade higher even though the threat of a recession is quite possible in 2007.
     
  9. newbunch

    newbunch

    IRX 4.96
     
  10. newbunch

    newbunch