Everyone is down playing this, the inversion is getting worse. Here we sit with massive deficits, an inverted yield curve. My gosh what a mess we have. Tax the rich
Is it not a thing to be grateful for? If long rates were higher then wouldn't financing those deficits be rather more difficult? Apologies if I am missing something.
You need to watch CNBC. Somehow this is a good thing(tm) and its different this time. How insightful!
Well we don't get CNBC in the UK. I realise that I am probably missing something, so please explain why things would be better for you lot if all else were unchanged and the yield curve spontaneously steepened 100bps 2s-30s.
I'd doubt that it's a good thing, no one ever said so except that nut from CNBC. http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig7/widening-trade-deficit.html
NOVEMBER 13. The yield curve became more inverted this week, with the negative differential between the 3-month and the 10-year at -49 basis points and a -76 basis point differential between the 10-year and the Feds fund rate. According to a Fed paper, that level of an inversion suggests there is now an over 40% probability of recession next year. This same model only predicted a 50% chance of recession in 2000, and as the paper authors acknowledge, the model probably understates risk in recent decades. http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/20452