Inverted Yield Curve

Discussion in 'Economics' started by myminitrading, Nov 13, 2006.

  1. Everyone is down playing this, the inversion is getting worse. Here we sit with massive deficits, an inverted yield curve.

    My gosh what a mess we have.

    Tax the rich
  2. anomaly


    Is it not a thing to be grateful for? If long rates were higher then wouldn't financing those deficits be rather more difficult?

    Apologies if I am missing something.
  3. empee


    You need to watch CNBC. Somehow this is a good thing(tm) and its different this time. How insightful!
  4. anomaly


    Well we don't get CNBC in the UK. I realise that I am probably missing something, so please explain why things would be better for you lot if all else were unchanged and the yield curve spontaneously steepened 100bps 2s-30s.
  5. socalpt


  6. TYX 4.71, TNX 4.617, FVX 4.607, UST2YR 4.77.

  7. S2007S


    NOVEMBER 13.

    The yield curve became more inverted this week, with the negative differential between the 3-month and the 10-year at -49 basis points and a -76 basis point differential between the 10-year and the Feds fund rate. According to a Fed paper, that level of an inversion suggests there is now an over 40% probability of recession next year. This same model only predicted a 50% chance of recession in 2000, and as the paper authors acknowledge, the model probably understates risk in recent decades.
  8. S2007S


    market continues to trade higher even though the threat of a recession is quite possible in 2007.
  9. IRX 4.96