Inverted yield curve has not been useful for predicting bear markets in a timely fashion. Data here

Discussion in 'Fixed Income' started by Market_Observer, Apr 3, 2022.

  1. piezoe


    Isn't it hard to get a real "Bear Market" by traditional measures without a recession? We don't want to confuse a correction with a bear market do we?
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2022
    #11     Apr 5, 2022
    murray t turtle likes this.
  2. SunTrader


    Posted this over on another topic, referencing Fed easing or not, but it is more appropriate here:

    "They actually have been reducing (their purchases) on the down low.

    Momo indicator on bottom of chart peaked last August and as % swing labels on top show, weekly up moves have gone from +2% down to very nearly down to +0.5%. Soon enough they likely will be flat then negative.

    And which is why I believe markets also peaked this past January and only lower lows rest of the year likely."

    ! FED BS.png
    #12     Apr 5, 2022
  3. %%
    THANKS for the 3-12 month data. WSJ did an article on the yield curve i have somewhere, that made it look better as an indicator. But not anywhere as useful as a 50/ 200dma. or even January indicator[about 88% +/accurate.]
    WSJ also had a long term earnings chart on top of S&p500 or DOW, not very useful also/people buy + sell for too many reasons not related to earnings.
    However right around upside or downside earning day , maybe a very close relationship:caution::caution:

    Even a hi% accurate[88% +/ ] indicator like Stock Trader's Almanac JAN indicator ,can be wrong big time, like JAN 1987, +JAN 2009:D:D
    #13     Apr 8, 2022
  4. SunTrader


    In the US, never has inflation topped 4% and unemployment dipped below 4% without sparking a recession in the following 24 months.

    - Larry Summers
    #14     Apr 11, 2022
    murray t turtle likes this.
  5. %%
    I wish someone\ anyone could predict the market or even 24 months in advance.
    Sure would make our job easier, but on the other hand, if anyone could predict the markets\ to easy to get lazy:caution::caution:
    You maybe right on JAN Hi.
    Monthly SPY,SPXL upro,tqqq close hi was DEC/ jan all time 12 month Hi.
    Actually i was surprised on MAR hi, on those \most likely bear rally??
    #15     Apr 12, 2022