Hey AMT, I just read through all your posts for yesterday. WOW... very awesome REAL TIME analysis. Would it be correct to say you start each position as a scalp and hold some inventory for the long swing trade? Also, you move your stop to break even + ticks if price is retracing against you right? Lastly, I just downloaded Investor RT, how many days lookback of continuous data should I have? Thanks JW
Thanks again AMT! I had previously discounted this approach since one can't really know when a buy/sell at one level and time offsets a sell/buy at another (i.e., cancelling inventory), but it appears that tracking cumulative delta at each price across days is nonetheless useful, even if it only gives approximate indications of S/R. At the risk of sounding naive, here's a question for the thread: AMT's approach seems to depend on buyers/sellers sitting in positions near specific levels, waiting to be taken out via their stops (else no inventory would accumulate). Who are these players? What game are they playing? Or perhaps the "inventory" model is actually largely wrong, and is misinterpreting what is happening (such as when many of the stops hit near a level may actually represent new postions rather that offsets to existing positions). (And, of course, there's the complication that every "buy" is also a "sell", etc.) I suspect the game is much more complicated than what is being shown by "inventory", but that AMT's approach nonetheless provides useful info. Perhaps AMT can flesh out his model of what is happening to provide some further insight.
The answer was rather simple for me one day when listening to the "pit" audio live on a very active running profile day. The actions of the commercials in the "pit" was in alignment with what I was watching in the ES cumulative delta (and you can watch the full contract too as the order flows). That solidified what I was watching and then it made total sense to me. BTW, 698.00's filled.......flat ES at this time.
So the commercial hedgers stake out relatively fixed positions that are large enough to create "bumps" in the cumulative delta that are not completely obscured by the speculators. Have been reviewing my COT notes from years ago, which I had discounted for purposes of intraday trading. Would be nice if your approach provides a few more clues about S/R levels. Thanks again...
I trade scalps about the same as a position trade.....just different size positions at entries and different sized range that I build the position within. Most times I will have my entry stop at b/e (or b/e + 1 tick) after my first target level is touched/filled/near-missed. DTN.IQ feed works good with Investor RT and I would say in the beginning just watch the delta on an intraday basis. As you get use to how the delta plots realtime, then you can start tracking the cumulative delta at key areas of price.
Our lowest level of resting delta NET Long inventory is at 685's down to the 681's at this time......we gobble up this inventory and we will move to new lows for the year. :eek:
hey,my first decent trade of the year...Actually i havent traded much since the sep-dec gravy train...but i saw adobe on a nice pull back from highs and i jumped on it...jumped out a little early but market wasnt recovering so i took my profit.... Order ID Buy/Sell Qty Symbol Price O.Type Expire Status Fill Sp Executed Entered 4804161161 Sell 1,000 ADBE 16.80 Limit Day (2009-03-05) Filled 1000@16.8404 11:31:25 2009-03-05 11:31:21 4804050319 Buy 1,000 ADBE 16.69 Limit Day (2009-03-05) Filled 1000@16.579 11:18:13 2009-03-05 11:18:12
Hi AMT4SWA, if I understood well how it works, we would encounter some resistance up at 695-702 bracket with a short holder net inventory of approximatively 14.000 ES contracts, right? Thanks for your lessons!