Once you can understand the Auction Market Process and then be able to "read" initiated buying or selling it will make sense to most imo. That understanding will create some logic to the price action you see each day.
713.00's filled.....ten point target.......that is it for me and I am holding last 50% into AH.......will cover according to price action if we get additional selling tonight. Looks as if sellers wanted higher pricing levels to re-enter the market short again today.........not uncommon in a bear market.
THNX! DAMN what a nice drop......will take more off at 708.00 if we get it here near the close or into AH session........15 point target so if this level is filled I will have last 33% of position on for any additional selling going forward.
Nice.....708.00's filled just seconds before the :15 CME close! Last 33% on with no targets for the ride in the AH session tonight.
So you only seem to really short the market. Is that just because you're a bear due to the state of the economy etc, or the things you look at (delta etc) tell you that we still shouldn't be long? I mean, I could have picked up some good shorts at similar levels to you today using basic TA (and did), but i was also looking for longs and was wary of us rallying hard after the last few months of constant dropping, but you have the overal direction in your favour always, it seems. What sort of size stop would you use on positions like you took today (although your trades seem to be pip perfect, but theoretically) Im wondering if im wasting my time, and need to study what you look at. Feels like the rest of us are playing checkers and your playing chess. Could something happen tomorrow for example that could turn you into a bull, or is it a gradual thing and any change in your sentiment takes time? cheers
Paul, I have played the LONG side for scalping here a bit the last couple of days but when I trade normal sized positions I stay with the overall trend (DOWN).....and I much prefer to hold short positions in the AH session in this environment. Stops adjust according to the type of trading I am doing....scalps or longer term postion trades. I have a stop that can be as close as three points from my positions cost basis when scalping, or as far as 5 to 7 points away from position cost basis when building up a position trade. Until I see a very large positive delta divergence (commercials accumulating massive BUY inventory), then I will remain bearish for the current environment.
AMT, Were the commercials holding massive Sell inventory on the way down? If so, are they still holding it? Also, do you find the COT data useful at all in monitoring the commercials. Thanks...and great trading!
Hard to tell who held and for how long, but yes there was massive commercial sell inventory built up in November of 2007.......in the "pit" and ES contracts. I do not track COT data.....have never really looked at it before.