Yes I would prefer any area to be tested and hold to then consider a LONG position trade. For the overall market in general though, I still do not see any evidence yet that we are at the "bottom"......so I will remain to trade with the overall trend. If I see a HUGE POSITIVE delta net long zone form, then I would consider that we may have an intermediate bottom at that time. So far I have not seen that yet....just like I did not see it in the fall when we bounced hard as I kept selling those rallies. Low 700's to high 600's would be nice for a good wash-n-rinse drop......that could bring in some heavy buying into the panic of that move.
Its really amazing reading your posts AMT! You have really found your game.. I hope you don't mind me asking a bit about your tracking of the delta zones. When you look for resistance area, you look for HEAVY buying at or above ask. Do you have some sort of filter, so you only track the big blocks? Or do you track every order hit on ask? This is done automatically by some program right? In a bear market like this, do you not track delta resistance areas? Or do you just sell every rally when you feel it is loosing steam? Please keep up your posting, it is really encouraging reading!
Veggen...... I track both filtered size orders and all orders so I do both......I do focus mainly on all order flow though. I track both support and resistance zones, they are about the same so no difference in tracking. When I sell rallies in this long term downtrend I usually start at or near a resistance zone. Some zones have more resting inventory than others, and the initiated buying or selling activity while at a zone is what I pay attention to realtime as I manage my entries/exits and overall position.
Interesting rumors flying about Yamana Gold for you gold players. http://www.themarketguardian.com/2009/02/yamana-gold-auy-update/
As the BANK indices are generally leading these markets in either direction, and C is probably the most followed, and also showing the greatest movements in either direction, I'm following C to follow the markets. C closed beneath support yesterday which puts me on the bear side. Here's a chart I posted: http://www.freetradingvideos.com/forum/ forum_posts.asp?TID=1924&PID=27618#27618
AMT4SWA, thanks for your posts and explanations. this has been a market that is caught in a consolidation. My question is, are you able to use your delta measures in a trending market? in a bull trend, Let's assume there was an upleg, what would you look for as a sign of a short-term profit-taking retracement? just net short inventory growth? In the same bull trend, Assume retracement (in bull trend) comes back to obvious support level, then, at that level, you just start looking for net longs to start showing up? in the same bull trend In same bull trend, suppose, upleg, then retrace, then buying comes in and price starts moving higher, reaches price level of previous resistance, (area of net short inventory) what would you look for to prevent you from trying a short. -For a period of time there would almost assuredly be a balance, a sideways consolidation as players took initial positions waiting for a breakout higher or a breakdown. Are you able to plainly see which direction will prevail? I have to assume that you do make some losing trades at some times. thanks for anything you can offer.
742.50 profit target is now filled as we have AH session trading right into the delta net long holders zone. The delta zone has not yet gone neutral but some of the held long inventory is definately bailing at this point. Today will be an exceptionally critical day for this market as the yearly low is in full test at this point. :eek:
The delta zones are exactly the same in a trending BULL / BEAR, or a range bound consolidation type market. In the end, it is all about significant S/R areas which price reacts too....as bigger players (commercials) move price from one area of resting inventory to another.