No....I strongly disagree. If I made these trades at areas OTHER THAN my tracked delta zones there would have been high probability of the trades running against me. If I have no resting inventory AT OR NEAR my entry price then what real actual defense does my entered position have? If you are a small unit 4 man fire-team, and you decide to get in "the fight" (enter a trade)......are you going to join battle out in an open field with no other friendly troops around??? Or would you rather get into the fight with 4,000 to 5,000 troops right at your back??? Simple for me.....I want support at my back when I entered trades!
Agree! You want the support. That's why they call them support lines (zones). Good luck. I will be following your posts with interest and learn from you. You have good style. BTW I've spent my share of nights with an endoscope stuck in the belly of the beast looking for cracks. But mostly on Ty154 (Tu154). If you know what I mean. The old good times.
Oh yes......"borescope" type fun........done many a P&W, GE, CFM, etc in my day. Never did much airframe crack INSP's other than with simple NDT methods. http://www.airliners.net/aircraft-data/stats.main?id=376
It seems to me like the most important part of the process is identifying the important areas of S/R that have the best chances of being highly reactive. Knowing where the inventory may be itching to trade is a good thing. When I look at AMT's recent charts, what they tell me is the following: The 924-929 level shows that buying efforts ended in a climax there and sellers were more than willing to take control of order flow and start actively selling. Who are these people selling? They have to be one of a few groups: Stuck Longs who are waiting desperately to break even, and shorts ready to double down on their bets & "defend" their position, or new shorts. If you are a stuck long, you'd be waiting for prices to return to your purchase level (or somewhere close enough to it) and hopefully get a fill with a limit sell order of your desire. If you don't get your limit sell order filled and you witness a buying climax, perhaps you think its time to just sell at the market since you are worried the buyers are exhausted at this point. If you are a short seller fading the area and are trying to get a limit sell fill ordered to start your short position, hopefully you got filled at the price you wanted. If you didn't, and you witness a buying climax/buying exhaustion, you will have to move your limit order to accomodate lower prices, or sell at the market. If you move your limit order down, you now have size chasing the bid on the way down. Whoever is doing the selling and whatever their motivation, the important part is, that prices must have reached a level where a large group of people are motivated to sell at the market and hammer the bids. I am sure anyone watching CDV has noticed that prices can reverse when CDV is up down or neutral relative to the last time price touched that pivot. With any number of reasons as to why prices did what it did at that pivot, the important part is anticipating a potential imbalance in supply / demand at that pivot. Prices might reverse with CDV in different conditions... and they all *might* work having meant different reasons as to why prices reversed. (see 800 double top, 3/18 3/19, then look @ 872 top, 4/17. CDV drastically different, but they both reversed prices for a good 40+ pts) 930 SPX was not a "random" location for prices to reverse for 50 pts, and neither was 875. Trade selection matters a lot. Risk management matters a lot. AMT4SWA exemplifies excellent trading skills in both categories. The patience to wait for the proper entry, courage to pull the trigger w/ size on the line, and the proper risk management to avoid disasters and book huge profits on a large runner. AMT4SWA has a keen sense for market mechanics and I am grateful that he shared his insights with those of us who are duly interested. It made me think harder about why prices reverse where they do, and what must happen in order for them to reverse.
good morning stoneface, I would suggest to you that you are now thinking like a true trader. Why not revisit the 930.50 and 871.50 levels on your daily chart and focus on the Daily Closes as well as Highs and Lows. The daily closes are very powerful for picking s&r. I would suggest you look at nothing else than daily prices plus these two levels that you have singled out. As you so wisely say ..."think harder and then think harder" until you can see what price is telling you. It wouldn't surprise me at all if one day you come back and say " hey f9, I can hit these reverses with less than a one point stop" This post wraps up this thread for me. regards f9
All targets at 876.50 just filled. I have last targets now set at 855.....805.....745.......and 685 with stop on all remaining positions at 925.00 I am going to let the trade ride with no more active management.......whatever happens, happens. In the mean time, I will continue to take LONG and SHORT intraday delta based trades as the SHORT "swing" trade plays out.
regardless of what happens going forward, nice homerun So, do you see any inventory zones (long or short) nearby? Or are you just waiting for intraday buildups?
Being largely visually impaired (as far as delta zones are concerned) I see a short zone from 880-882 and a shallow one from 877-879, long zone from 874-875, extending down to 869.50. Then short zone from 867-869.50. $.02, D.
I'm gonna throw my .02 out there and venture to say that the nearest held short inventory zone is from 882-885 and formed over multiple price rotations during Fridays trading..... Ok AMT... let us have it!!! haha