Quote from JWF215: "I'm sure they'd agree with the fact that they don't know the outcome of every individual trade, they just know that with experience, they'll have a high probability to gain 10pt+ a day when executing perfectly on every trade." Not necessary to execute perfectly. That's what stops are for. Being right only half the time is more than sufficient to get it done with a good system. In fact if the system is too good, I'd bet my life it doesn't really work. That's why people develop systems in the first place. It replaces greed and fear. You have permission to blame the system not yourself and keep on going. I have a plaque on my wall in my office where I trade, reminding me to follow the system and hope it doesn't fail. On my keyboard is a reminder to follow the rules and just what they are lest I forget. Right Ken, By executing perfectly... I was referring to not breaking discipline. Not one can enter an exit perfectly. My point was that you don't have to win every trade... You follow your plan and execute without breaking your rules which leads to a high chance of positive aggregated payoff. I like your take on why people develop systems, I never thought about it that way... I think I had some of that systemitis when I first started. Now I try to flow with the market. But my motto that has stood me in good stead all these years: "The profit that a man may find, in the ignorance of others." (see, you have to be arrogant to be a successful trader imo). LoL, how else can you make money other than if someone else made the wrong bet? this is a negative sum game with commissions... Cheers W
I'm sure it's not hard to make 10pts per day for some of you guys . . . but . . . Just so that we're clear, I think we need to distinguish between 10pts total and 10pts per car . . . I'm under the impression that Ken is referring to a per car situation . . . and not that I'm doubting that he can (and does) do it . . . but you'd have to be be pretty darn astute to make that day in day out . . . or atleast on average over a week . . . or maybe I'm just a little dense . . . a noob . . . or I've just not seen the light as many have posted on this thread . . . I've not been unprofitable, but 10pts per car per day is f***** great, if you can do it . . .
I think the issue is that anybody can come along and say "I make 10 points per day" etc. Obviously nobody will believe them. I wouldn't expect anybody to believe my returns without posting realtime trades or at least account screenshots (ive done both) Thats where AMT is different. And sponge, for what it's worth, 'Candles' who you quoted, is possibly one of the best traders ive seen post live trades bettered only by the likes of the genius that is AMT4SWA.
I'm just wondering, with all the genius that's lurking around this once great educational thread, focused on use of bid/ask volume breakdown (aka delta) to trade inventory zones (I know, seems ages ago, but some must still remember it)... can anyone tell whether the 955-7 price level is going to continue being a reactive short zone or is it about to be broken out soon?
I would say that zone is neutralized. Looking for a pullback, then a breakout. http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1248347650_60_UploadImage.png
Hard to read the exact CD levels from the chart, but your call was right on the money! Now, we need AMT to tell us where the next reactive zone is at?
No Questions we are in the middle of a rocket breakout today 7-23-09... but AMT's strategy, as per this whole thread... was to sell a neutralized zone that was a prior Sell Zone (which 950 to 955 was)... which had an inventory grab over the last week or so and was neutralized... as this one was... and so was a reactive sell zone... So the correct trade, as of yesterday's close, was to be short over night coming into this morning and then seeing the intense initiated buying this morning covering to go long... for my education could you point out where i am wrong.. thanks...
I'm gonna put my 2 cents in here as my last post on ET: AMT as we all know thinks the world is coming to an end (I agree) and is/was a short seller from 865. Now, the market has marched straight up to 975. Manlycure defined an area this morning that again, the market cut through it like a hot knife through butter. That's enough to send me back to the drawing board when I was developing systems early on. Here's a guy who has followed all this very closely and he didn't get it right or know what to do until afterwards. You've got a serious problem. You didn't need anything to tell you to buy today. You should KNOW you should be buying. As far as what you are doing wrong, you don't need to be in the market all the time. How fucking greedy are you anyway? The more you're in it the more exposure to sudden shock and RISK. The smartest traders like Paul Tudor Jones always play great defense. You could learn a great deal about risk from reading how he thinks and trades. Why would you want to be short going into this morning? Did you think the market was going down? If so, you have a serious problem. Have you ever heard of trending? I know that is a dirty word on ET where everyone is looking for the fast buck. There was an idiot named Pekelo calling for a drop 2 days ago and a H&S to boot. Go read what they thought this am. Somebody slayed his dragon for sure! The best advice I can give you ( I doubt you'll take it but maybe some will) is get off this forum looking for the Holy Grail someone is going to give you. It aint gonna happen! You'll win the lottery first. Develop your own system that works for you. Then you won't have to come here or anywhere asking "what did I do wrong"? You'll know what to do. I'm deleting my shortcut to ET and suggest you do likewise.
You are so funny Ken... You write as if you make sense and a lot of what you say comes out as completely gibberish since you can't communicate clearly.. . and it looks like you are always trying to start a fight... So... always holding overnight is taking unnecessary risk?.. in whose universe bubba.. and if you take the time to read my post clearly i said any one could see the initiated buying coming in immediately at the open and it was time to cover and go long.. at that point And AMT was a short seller from 865... In what universe... can you not even read... He was MAJOR short from 955 from June 10th and he layered in another MAJOR SHORT from 925 on July 1st..Go back and READ the posts.. all the way down to 865... he had huge and very profitable positions on down to 865... He obviously covered those trades a lot lower... (as he laid out his rules since May 1st that once you see very strong initiated buying you cover your shorts... ) You are truly pathetic...
Maybe like you, Ken, I'm not exactly willing to disclose how my system works, but I'd say this, AMT was immensely instrumental in helping me utilize a brand new counter-trending concept (counted as the 3rd time I sent myself back to the drawing board). AMT said it before, he's not here to give us the answer, he wanted to foster conversation thru which each trader may be able to distill fresh ideas that can be used to construct a profitable method. Your mileage may vary and based on what you say, you weren't able to pick up anything useful (not that you needed it, since you average 10 pts/day...). As a side note, yesterday and today, a system could go long and short (with overlapping trades) and make money both ways. Plenty of volatility for everyone to enjoy