For the setup I'm using, there are periods of times (which are rather extended, on the order of weeks) where CD divergence is a meaningful criterion and other periods where factoring it in will keep you out of good trades. Conspiracy theory says that you can only make money when THEY decide you can make money
After meeting Don Miller, and also having studied AMT's method somewhat. It'd be interesting to read your current views and opinions and comparisons between both types of trading, and which you think suits you best, if any. JW
Their two styles are very different. I cannot say that they are similar, except that the two traders are both very successful. D.M. is a scalper. AMT is primarily a discretionary swing trader, who runs ATS on the side. They use very different edges in the market to achieve the same end, positive P&L. Personally, I've never been much of a Scalper. I try to keep the R:R very high, compared to D.M. I really do not know how to "rotate" entries with as much finesse as AMT. IMO, being able to do that is an edge all by itself. I think trying to clone yourself in the exact image of other successful traders is impossible due to variance in personal psychology and beliefs. Assimilating successful traits from different traders as it fits me, seems a better approach. I describe myself as a "Support & Resistance" trader. First, know where to trade. Second, decide whether or not you should enter. Third, have steel balls to hang on for a large target when you get one right. If you have really identified the correct S/R level, there should be no doubt in your mind if your trade worked or not. I find CDV most helpful in deciding whether or not I should enter once I arrive at a key price level. AMT works some extra voodoo magic to figure out what's going on with delta zones... it's still a bit of a mystery to me. His ability to predict a return to the bottom of a trading range with such accuracy is unbelievable. Let's not forget, both DM & AMT have very tough trading psychologies. They are consistent, hard working, and well polished in the ways of the market. They know what needs to be done and execute as prescribed. These traders have my respect- they are real professionals. And yourself Whiskey? Will you follow in the footsteps of a super scalper, or the master swing trader?
Thanks for your precise description. I think of myself more as scalper, but really I'm on a 12-step loser-recovery program. One day at a time. A breakeven day is a success. Keep the gloves up. JW
Do you believe DM's approach lends itself to automation? The number of roundtrip contracts per year (293k) is very large, I'm guessing he's relying on a batting average for winning (rather than a large R:R for each entry).
No Woosh today We even had a long intraday delta divergence in the afternoon lows test. Hope the commercials arent building long inventory again. Tomorrow....keeping fingers crossed for the selling to come back in.
I think there is a great deal of discretion in his methods. He has a certain feel for the market that seems to dominate his trading decisions. That is just my impression. A better description of his trading style is documented in the 400+ pages of his blog. His risk management style seems very fluid and dynamic. I bet that's an edge that's hard to describe for automation. I believe he scratches a lot of trades... which accounts for a lot of the high volume. p.s. D.M. does not "believe" in automation.
Thanks for the insight. Scalping, whether automated or not, inevitably involves a lot of scratching. Sounds like DM has what it takes to withstand the emotional toll. I'd be interested to know his win/loss percentage and profit/loss ratio.
Again...I agree. AMT is able to size up the Longterm trend down to the mini intraday rotations. He is able to situate himself to capture the next intermediate term trend and use the short term and intraday rotations to put his intermediate term trend WAY in the money even before the intermediate term trend gets underway. Auction Market Theory sais that the markets consolidate more than 70% of the time.......so trading the way AMT does makes perfect sense and is ideal imo.
Hi AMT, it seems that commercials on occassion use news events to "justify" a move . . . additionally they always seem to start out a few days/rotations in advance to building inventory/improve pricing . . . . it also seems that they somehow have the information at hand either through intelligence or contacts that most of us don't have . . . WINK WINK . . . Anyway, what news releases apart from the payroll numbers and one-off news events do you think have been important enough to warrant action/reaction from commercials?