That's quite a dynamic picture you're looking at, between order flow bias and prevailing divergence at the retest price level. Assuming the divergence at 926 were to be taken out and you'd have let price go to 931 before taking a shot, would the divergence at 931 be a factor in the decision?
You have to look at it from my perspective......I am still holding positions from the 950's run, so whatever happened as price traded up to the 928 level left me with plenty of cushion to manage new entries while still "in-the-green" on the overall held position. Price would have had to trade up to the 940 area before any entries around 928 would have been a threat to me......at the time of my 927.25 entries I was not of a defensive mentality yet. I was looking more at that move as an opportunity to re-load the overall position with pretty decent cost basis entries (in the context of playing for a 872's bust before any 950's bust in the days ahead). I am also very familiar with the patterns of Auction Market Theory, and that hard run to the 928 level did not appear to me as the bulls setting up to go take out the 950 area. When you can understand WHY price would be allowed to trade to higher levels at times (so THEY can sell it again too......at decent pricing levels), then some of those type moves really just become "the game" you watch playing out to hurt the weaker hands. The commercials are loaded up themselves in the 940's/950's, so whatever cycling of price they do in the 920's/930's and below is just pre-positioning for what they see as bigger movements of price ahead.......and I do think they have made THEIR "bets" for downside price action intermediate term.
Mainly when you see a delta divergence get neutralized, then you want price to complete the reaction move to that inventory bailing out.....usually a minimum 5 point move. So there is no good reason usually to start looking for shots again until the inventory "bail-out" reaction in the order flow bias has completed.
QUOTE]Quote from AMT4SWA: Mainly when you see a delta divergence get neutralized, then you want price to complete the reaction move to that inventory bailing out.....usually a minimum 5 point move. So there is no good reason usually to start looking for shots again until the inventory "bail-out" reaction in the order flow bias has completed. [/QUOTE] I understand the "reaction" part (you mentioned before a 5-10 pts thru move is likely upon zone neutralization). My question is concerned with the entry criteria once that reaction occurs - do you look for delta divergence at 931 to be a "nice to have" or a "must have" condition (in addition to initiated sell signal)? I'm guessing that order flow bias due to hurried covering by weaker hands (whose stops got busted above 926) may create a non-negligible (positive) skew of the CD at 931 that you'd want to somehow factor in the (short) entry decision.
I understand the "reaction" part (you mentioned before a 5-10 pts thru move is likely upon zone neutralization). My question is concerned with the entry criteria once that reaction occurs - do you look for delta divergence at 931 to be a "nice to have" or a "must have" condition (in addition to initiated sell signal)? I'm guessing that order flow bias due to hurried covering by weaker hands (whose stops got busted above 926) may create a non-negligible (positive) skew of the CD at 931 that you'd want to somehow factor in the (short) entry decision. [/QUOTE] Oh sorry.....I see what you mean. The divergence in place after the 5 point minimum move would be in the "nice-to-have" category. What I would be mainly looking for after the 5 point minimum move would be if BUYERS are then willing to pay those new higher prices. Many times if the market is in an actual true rally mode they will....after the neutralization reaction completes the buyers will come in and start buying any pullback. You can watch this as clear as a sunny day in the realtime order flow bias from cumulative delta. Now if no buyers show up, I would be taking more aggressive (no divergence in place) short entries with proper order flow transition based signals (selling the vacuum left after the neutralization pop plays out). Trading my style is all about following the "Supply & Demand" flow as shown clearly within the parsed order flow volume analysis.......tracking WHO is in control at any moment, and WHERE are they in control from. Also, where are the resting zones of supply and what is the demand as the market trades to those zones.
Sorry I messed up the quotes, was typing while boarding a plane (no peanuts today). Many thanks for the explanation, it's clear to me that experience watching the PA/CD play out using a VB tool is essential to "getting" the complete picture.
......And the rockets red glare, the LONGS bursting in air, Gave proof to the BEARS that our flag was still there. Oh say does that star-spangled SHORT trade yet wave O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave!!! Oh...sorry there....got carried away singing again!!! :eek: Happy 4th of JULY all!!! The perfect day where all Americans in a show of force should take all their (registered) guns out on the front yard, and sit in their lawn chairs, drink beer, and settle all grievances with neighbors! :eek:
Proud to be an American... by excercising my rights to run thru a few boxes of 9mm, .40. and .45 yesterday at the local shooting range =) Btw, Don Miller was a gracious host, very good guy. Hard working, intense, quite sharp. Just got back from my East coast road trip...
Yo AMT... I know you like the DAX sometimes in the Nite sessions... what about trading the FTSE and the Aussie Stock Futures... thanks...
Hi AMT, thanks for your threads. I tried to get initiated but stuck really. Can I ask if this is the correct description of CD basics. Main goal is to identify areas of where the large positions has been opened. The main assumption is that the bad guys (presumably globalists) will make every effort to turn market into opposite direction (opposite to the majority consensus) get through these areas to run stops and liquidate those positions. Then they will open their own positions and reverse. The method is to run along with bad guys. Is that right? Thank you <P.S. this is self-destructive message and will annihilate website after first reading>