I don't think anyone of any importance (ie those who could effect the S&P market by their size) is reading or paying any attention to this or any other thread on ET.
No......BOTH divergences were positive and goes into the context of recent price action. As the market closed and moved into the AH session there was positive divergence and then just out of the cash session open. Looking for intraday trade set-ups just out of the cash session open is always a good idea imo. There was good evidence just after the open to buy into that first order flow transition (with a group of "net" long holders from the previous EOD action willing to defend on the pullback to test AH session lows).
Massive order flow divergences with price have marked about 90% of all major moves in the ES since I have been using delta........I LOVE them!
What you have shown is also another VERY smart way to use the data......drawing and watching what I call "threshold" levels is always important.
As long as traders have access to the ORDER FLOW data, "commercials" will never be able to hide everything they do.....
I think the ABSENCE of proper delta tools in MOST well known charting services (TS, Esignal, Realtick, etc) is very interesting as a stand alone thought........
I've marked your chart to clarify my question. When I get the buy signal after the cash open, I look backward in time to see if and what divergence exists. I see two possible reference points to calculate delta relative to, if I choose #1, I have neg div, if I choose #2, I get pos div. If not by hindsight knowledge, what rule would unambiguously determine that the divergence is positive to favor a long trade?
Commercials are institutions/players you typically see trading in the PIT (and electronic)......they frequently trade large positions in concert with one another (heck they can watch each other as they enter/exit positions realtime). I am sure there has at times been some wink and nod action within their realms, no secret society needed. As more volume moves to electronic contracts (away from open-outcry) it is important to have the means to analyze the electronic contracts order flow.