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Inventory Grab Alert 4/30/09!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by AMT4SWA, May 1, 2009.

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AMT4SWA
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Quote from chuckt101:

Make sure you keep a lookout for her

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OH......she is right here with my wife and I......we are doing a three-way workout on a Total Gym GTS!!! :eek:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXG2Hcr2RpU&feature=related

#1461 Jun 6, 2009

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stoneface
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Quote from AMT4SWA:

News release price/order flow reaction for HOD formation.......

http://www.charthub.com/images/2009/06/05/ES__CD_2.png
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One of the best charts you've posted on reading "entry level" price action w/ CDV.

Many thanks!

Stone

#1462 Jun 6, 2009

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manlycure
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Quote from AMT4SWA:

1) - The zone was traded through in price but the inventory held (during a somewhat rare AH session news release with lower volumes than during a cash session type new release, and price right at the base of a major pocket of held inventory) so this is not the norm by any means (but it can play out like this on occasion). Price has magnified short term reactions in lower overall volume environments like we had pre-market today at 08:30 CST. Sometimes price will be "allowed" to stretch a zone if there is the ability for "holders" to price improve on their holdings......I think we saw that today.

2) - Along with question #1, I do think commercials were already willing to let price trade to a certain level (while they took advantage themselves with price improvement) before they would initiate new selling to cap off the short term price reaction. From what I have seen in the past, you could say the commercials "allowed" price to trade to a certain distance from their core holdings....that would be the better phrase imo. Also, those same commercials probably had some remaining held LONG inventory from lower levels which they finally expended to weaker hands with the news reaction pop. I know some call these type of moves "wash-n-rinse" as a dramatic price reactional move will be used to catch breakout traders and turn them into the weaker hands (while you expend your profitable held inventory into their hands). Once this inventory transfer is complete, then new opposite positions are initiated to drive price against those new weaker hands.....next as the weaker hands dump out of their breakout trades, they end up adding order flow to push the price even more in favor of the "drivers" creating a quick wash-n-rinse move.

3) - The reason I let go of my 947's/948's entries as price traded to 947.00 just before news release is, I don't already know what the commercials were going to do....so I had to play it safe. Commercials had the obvious advantage of already knowing what their plans were for the news release reaction. Not knowing what they were going to do specifically, leaves me in a non-optimal situation if I had just held all positions through the news release (what if I held all and then commercials bail on all inventory as we traded through the 955's......heck, price could have made a move to 965's easy).

The smart play in my situation was to just bail at b/e on held inventory, and then hope for a good spike in price to find a new entry with price improvement (if the commercials were going to fade the move....which they did). On the other hand, I would have been screwed if the number was real bad today and price would have dumped 8 to 10 points on the news. From all indications leading up to the actual news release, it sure seemed someone (hahahaha) knew that number was going to be decent today I felt very assured today giving up my previously held inventory that I would get a new opportunity to re-enter with some price improvement (and start off fresh with new full sized scale in entry levels). All in all, the day worked out well as the news spike was faded hard followed by that excellent breakdown sell off to the lower 930's
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Thanks for the thorough explanation. Even Christie can understand it all now.

#1463 Jun 6, 2009

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EdgeHunter
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AMT...

Could you please post a screen shot of your... I R/T VB settings...

Here is my guess settings VB...
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#1464 Jun 7, 2009

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MidKnight
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Quote from AMT4SWA:

It is real simple.......those were two zones that formed UNDER current price as a result of Friday's distribution (remember that delta zones most often form at the "edges" of a days distribution.....like a HOD or a LOD). These are minor levels or what I would call "speed bumps" if the market were to start selling off (price may bounce off these type zones once before the uptick was sold again and price would drop down through.

The zones I noted on Friday's chart are not at all significant like all the resting inventory ABOVE current price......but the first zone and then the second zone formed Friday did contain price throughout the day (first zone was neutralized by strong LONG covering on the markets second leg down which looked like a LOD test run). The second zone from Friday which formed is the unique situation when you have a zone that is not exactly at a LOD or HOD volume distribution (the zone formed on a retest of a HOD or LOD run.....this is exactly what we had on Friday with the higher low volume distribution).

In our current market environment, the MAIN zones I am paying close attention too are the upper zone of 946's to 949's (with a sub zone at 953's to 957.50), and the lower zone of 880's to the 876.75 level. These are what I would call our bigger picture OVER / UNDER Delta Zones........at this point, if price breaks through and neutralizes either of the zones then price will range extended imo (a minimum of 20 points extension imo for our current scenario). Price is range bound now in roughly a 75 point range, and eventually we will breakout one way or the other with some order flow energy!
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I am in your debt for the kindness of your reply. You know I'm trading non-USA markets without the benefit of a globex type session making it susceptible to large distortions from the opening volume prints. I understand what you are saying above, but it seems that without being able to track inventory, all I can lean on is intraday zones for the day.....sometimes it sucks to trade non-USA markets

My thanks again - I wish you a refreshing and joyous vacation.

My best,
MK

#1465 Jun 7, 2009

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Insearch
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Quote from MidKnight:

I am in your debt for the kindness of your reply. You know I'm trading non-USA markets without the benefit of a globex type session making it susceptible to large distortions from the opening volume prints. I understand what you are saying above, but it seems that without being able to track inventory, all I can lean on is intraday zones for the day.....sometimes it sucks to trade non-USA markets

My thanks again - I wish you a refreshing and joyous vacation.

My best,
MK
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Well, don't know what time zone you're in, EU? Far East? you should be able to get some mileage out of DAX as I understand it . . .

#1466 Jun 7, 2009

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manlycure
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Quote from manlycure:

Thanks for the thorough explanation. Even Christie can understand it all now.
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Christie just called and said she needs a private tutoring session on delta matters. I replied "of course" without thinking twice and now freaking out because she may be asking questions I have no good answers to. I hope you don't mind if I ask more questions later to make sure Christie's curiosity is satisfied. Meanwhile, enjoy your vacation

#1467 Jun 7, 2009

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MidKnight
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Quote from Insearch:

Well, don't know what time zone you're in, EU? Far East? you should be able to get some mileage out of DAX as I understand it . . .
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Hi Insearch,

No, I'm in Asian markets which have 2 real opens a day. No 24 hour markets here.

With regards,
MK

#1468 Jun 7, 2009

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Insearch
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Quote from MidKnight:

Hi Insearch,

No, I'm in Asian markets which have 2 real opens a day. No 24 hour markets here.

With regards,
MK
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Don't really have any live experience with Asian markets/time frame . . . are you saying that you cannot trade the DAX from Asia?

#1469 Jun 7, 2009

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AMT4SWA
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Quote from EdgeHunter:

AMT...

Could you please post a screen shot of your... I R/T VB settings...

Here is my guess settings VB...
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Looks good.......For only one session of data (for whatever session choice you use/check....24 Hr....US CASH...etc) you have everything set good. If you want multiple days of stringed together CD then set session for "24 Hour" and in the box you have sown which shows "days values" change this and select "all values".......

Actually I have numerous charts set to various settings but these are the two primary......some with days values.......some with all values.

#1470 Jun 8, 2009

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