You can spend a lot of time watching and taking notes while studying the behavior, or these guys know a lot about program trading....... http://www.programtrading.com/
There seems to be a largish short inventory build in the 33.25-30.25, looking roughly like 35K? Edit: about 20K at 4:00 EST . . .
wow, that last run up there was strong! There was a nice bearish div. there for a long time, which I got burned on twice!
That is massive held LONG's covering on the way down.......33.25-30.25 is NOT an area to sell.....that is the middle of the road.....play the "edges" You could BUY the first retest of the 925.50 level or SELL the retest of the 946's........the rest is garbage (for counter-trend trades).
Waited patiently for a retrace back to 27ish, and looked like a nice div, so shorted when I saw sellers coming in. Should not have let stop hit as buyers entered again, with STRONG tick. Shorted again the VWAP, when there was still a nice bearish div. Pulled that one off before stop was hit as buyers again entered. Lost on both trades, but not that much.
I see, how does one differentiate new inventory vs long holders from lower pricing bailing? In other words what distinguishing characteristic does new layered inventory have?
Always be cognizant that we had roughly 48,000 net short and their 945/946/947 (core of net short inventory) entries had their inventory +20 in the money. Price trading back to the 925/926/927 area after the LOD pivot had many pulling off heavy inventory (EOD short covering rally) into the close. Now the sellers who "rang the til" nice today have increased liquidity to play with again tomorrow.