Intuition in trading.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Laissez Faire, Oct 21, 2023.

  1. padutrader

    padutrader

    yes but high probability means low reward.

    and for safety or surer reward you have to pay more, in the form of high risk.

    so if you do not take the [small] reward then you have take the big risk [big loss].

    trading is math and you cannot escape math INTUITIVELY.
     
    #21     Oct 22, 2023
  2. padutrader

    padutrader

    if Bruce says there is ...there is
     
    #22     Oct 22, 2023
  3. padutrader

    padutrader

    do NOT confuse intuition with the actions taken, without deliberating, by trained professionals .

    so if you are not trained and you use intuition as substitute for training, which is what most newbies do, it is obvious that you are, well, acting purely intuitively.

    considering that the statistics show that 95 % of newbie businesses fail with in one year, purely acting intuitively is not good for long term success
     
    #23     Oct 22, 2023
  4. padutrader

    padutrader

    my problem i get suspicious when all things align .....better safe ..in markets..they are open 24 hours any case so you do not miss anything.

    and there is always a safer second entry or a third....
     
    #24     Oct 22, 2023
  5. VicBee

    VicBee

    I like to call intuition an educated guess. You read macro info micro info you look at various opinions and expected results, you look at charts and the various TA available and finally make decisions. Educated guesses also lead to outside the box possibilities that may or not influence decisions.

    I don't dismiss strict system trading, I just couldn't figure out how to set one up to give me something accurate enough to use. I believe AI will in some future be able to take educated guesses in and integrate them in systems based trading.
     
    #25     Oct 22, 2023
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  6. Youre confusing intuition with into wishing.
     
    #26     Oct 22, 2023
    ironchef likes this.
  7. As Schwager explains in the intro to his "Zen and the Art of Trading" chapter, this wide-ranging, and rather philosophical, interview with a top trader had to be scrapped on fears it would alter the trader's image with his firm's corporate clients.

    Schwager asked this trader for permission to anonymously publish one interview excerpt, which he found particularly insightful. Here's a sample:

    "...I still don't understand your trading method. How could you make these huge sums of money by just watching the screen?

    There was no system to it. It was nothing more than, "I think the market is going up, so I'm going to buy." "It's gone up enough, so I'm going to sell." It was completely impulsive. I didn't sit down and formulate any trading plan. I don't know where the intuition comes from, and there are times when it goes away.

    How do you recognize when it goes away?

    When I'm wrong three times in a row, I call time out. Then I paper trade for a while.

    For how long do you paper trade?

    Until I think I'm in sync with the market again. Every market has a rhythm, and our job as traders is to get in sync with that rhythm. I'm not really trading when I'm doing those trades. There's trading being done, but I'm not doing it.

    What do you mean you're not doing it?

    There's buying and selling going on, but it's just going through me. It's like my personality and ego are not there. I don't even get a sense of satisfaction on these trades. It's absolutely that objective. Did you ever read Zen and the Art of Archery?..."
     
    #27     Oct 22, 2023
    VicBee, ironchef and comagnum like this.
  8. tsfx

    tsfx

    Successful "intuition" traders actually have a pretty straightforward strategy that can be modelled and there isn't anything magical about it. Say orderflow traders.

    Bad intuition traders can be classified as trades based on current emotions and current PnL's. Success depends on luck, usually they are not lucky because they tend to average down a lot, revenge trade and god knows what else.

    So, intuition trading has like dozen shades of grays which makes it kinda difficult to have an universal answer about how successful it can be.
     
    #28     Oct 22, 2023
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  9. ironchef

    ironchef

    Been there done that back in 2010-12. It created all my problems in my life then. :banghead:

    Trading was EASY, so EASY to transfer money from my trading account to other's trading accounts, just click.....
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2023
    #29     Oct 22, 2023
    tsfx likes this.
  10. ironchef

    ironchef

    Perhaps I did it wrong, should I click buy and sell at the same time?
     
    #30     Oct 22, 2023