so you're basically admitting that you have never been successful trading based on technical analysis? ...and the reason why I should pay attention to your new "theories" is because..... TA is not about prediction...it's about probabilities... you would have to be literally insane to actually believe that you or anyone else can know what...as you state...."other people will do next" .....and this is the thread everybody's been waiting for ET is really a joke but makes for a good laugh which is why I keep coming back
That is exactly the base of my confidence in TA: market inertia in the sense of psychological inertia. What's interesting is that psychological inertia can probably be related to computer trading algos as well, because they are still designed by humans who construct them based on human logic and human behavior is subject to "chain reaction" effect.
Not at all. Late is relative. You are only late if you are one of the last participants in the move. If there are more to follow after you enter, you are not late, but just in time, doesn't matter how much of the previous price excursion you've "missed". "Missed" is much an illusion really, one of "trader's mind games" I wrote about recently. People emotionally react to the strong move they see as something that belongs to them, but is "missed" if they didn't participate. When in reality there is no difference between a strong directional move and a period of "chop". Total sequence of small moves in "chop" probably far exceeds the quick strong spike and some algos certainly exploit it. Interesting psychological phenomenon.
You needed to check the meaning of the word ''Inertia'' first,before you reply.How can it be NOT LATE?! LOL Regarding how markets operate,LATE is VERY relative(edit:VERY ABSOLUTE).You operate in the chaos, if your are late.
Easily: if you jump on the running wagon, which has enough inertia, it delivers you where you want. And you are only late if the wagon doesn't have enough inertia anymore. TA is the tool to measure market inertia. By far not perfect due to obvious lack of inputs besides past price/volume, but enough to generate consistent alpha.
Gee..maaan...how old are you,anyway?Do you trade at all?How many other jumpers in the RUNNING wagon yet in ET? No offense intended,as your my fellowcitizen and all that,but you have no fkn clue what your talking about.Positive alpha?Less then 1% in the hedge fund industry can deliver consitent positive alpha.And your saying it could be done by jumping in the running wagon?LOL! Inertia?Sure!If mr.Maestro doesn`t change the word "Inertia" on at least "Impuls",or smth like that,this thread is over.
Yes I do trade and just had a successful "inertia" trade called in real-time. And I stand on the position that TA does provide the tool set to gauge market inertia with enough probability to deliver consistent positive alpha. If you can't do it, you may keep rationalizing that 1% hedge funds are only consistent and that's why it's OK for you to be among 99%. Fine, emotionally comfortable position, but unproductive. You have to hate comfort and seek for the challenges to succeed in such a competitive business.
That's off topic. I don't want to saturate Maestro's thread with irrelevant matters. PM me if you want and I'll drop you the chart.