Hi. I am in Mexico for my spring break and have a very limited Internet access. It wasn't sarcasm. I actually believe that Xspurt has a method of filtering the "human imprint" on a price chart. I was impressed with his intuition. Also, marketsurfer, I respect your intelligence and your experience. I think you can contribute a great deal of your insights to any thread. However, sometimes your emotions move you away from the topic at hand. I understand. I am not free from this weakness myself; however, it is much more useful if we all discuss our points of view with the outmost respect to all the participants. Please forgive me for saying that. I just want to keep this fantastic discussion on track. I know you can contribute lots of your original thinking to this thread. Please do so. I would really enjoy it. Cheer, MAESTRO P.S. I do think that Xspurt has in-depth knowledge of sentiment and emotion imprints recognition. I am outmost interested in this skill. I am sure that all of the participants of this thread could benefit from this.
Have a minute to participate here (on vacation until Monday as well). And the question still exists: how can we possibly "quantify" intuition? And is it possible at all? Because for a logical person like me it's difficult to distinguish constructive intuition from the random emotions. Maestro, you presented one technique, which looks very interesting, which I remembered as "double bell" (some feeling appearing again and again, at least twice). I am very interested in what other techniques possibly exist in the field.
I am aware of longer definition, which was taught in the university, where I studied psychology. Intuition is knowledge, which has not reached the fully conscious level yet. And here lies the problem: very hard for a conscious-oriented person to trust something not fully conscious. This must be a serious issue of Western, left-hemisphere oriented culture. Now I wonder, if researches exist, which compared left vs. right-hemisphere prevalent persons in relation with intuitive trading abilities.
In regards to Colin Camerer, he mentions that good traders mask (or lack) the ability to fear lose. It is interesting, I had a trade on the euro and knew that the weekend would be packed with action. (just a hunch) i did not bother to close my order cause in the grande scheme of things it dont make a difference. Granted I am 100% hedged. (as some cyprians may have thought) Closing it would of been right but what the heck
Its funny, Hershey, that you mention douglas he begins with the probability idea, something you presumably seemed to be against. (as all your trades are winning trades and all that) but then he continues by adding in to that the "newer ideas". Emotionally he seems very transparent and genuine. He does however mention TA based on price alone. Its 2 opposing ideas that are for the first time put in one. But there is no intuition aspect of it yet. why is he on the thread or am i missing something ? Also, where can I get reliable time and sales data ?
applying intuition or mathematical probabilities to random thin air is no more than hypothetical guessing, if this is true it follows that this will happen, all ifs, but applied to reality, there are results occcuring ,in the markets case its price. In the universe ,scientist's base their predictions on past,tree rings analysis for example. The mind being more powerful than a computer, as mentioned in this thread, could possibly be the difference between knowledge and intuition, where with knowledge you have facts to apply a mathematical equation to , several most likely , until you have a recurring equation that becomes predictable. Intuition would be the minds ability to figure out ahead of the mathemetician or scientist and the abscence of proof or definition makes it subject to failure, but when your intiuition pays off the majority of the time ,you feel safe to cautiously rely on it. I don't believe you can amplify the intuition, but you can add data ,references , correlations in the market to give it a chance to be more perceptive , percieve political statements as true or misleading, have more of the bases covered so to speak to reduce chance of failure
What if the problem lay elsewhere? What if you actually had good intuition that could be amplified because of the knowledge base and experience you have built up, but you can't understand intuition because it seems random or intermittent? Let's say the market can be represented by colors combined with a geometric shape. All PA is made up of green, red or blue movement covering the entire color spectrum of energy and momentum while a tetrahedron with each side of Green, Red and Blue represents the type of force that is predominant. Now here's the problem: a 2D chart can only show one face of the tetrahedron with its main color - you can't see the tetrahedron spin. If you could see it spin you would observe two things: first the color shift as the edge comes closer to you and this is when intuition is at its highest and secondly you would realize when the color has changed so different forces are exerting their influence and green thinking is weaker when blue is in control. For simplicity let's say green is lateral time and blue is space time. Now to complicate matters, the tetrahedron does not spin in a seemingly predictable manner because it reverses for some reason. However the morphing of the colors warns of the impending reversal when for example blue will trump green or red trumps green. If all you can see or are aware of is the green face of the tetrahedron then your intuition is based on the PA when green is in control. You have exactly the same intuition when the tetrahedron spins to a new color but you observations are still based on green thinking, so you cannot pick up most of the important details or you lag slightly behind the blue traders. The conclusion you make is you don't have reliable intuition when the problem is you don't have the total information required to overcome the problem of intermittent intuition. green seems random because you can't observe the warning color morphs and when blue is in ascendency you are blind to the signals it is giving you. A one dimensional market can't exist. A two dimensional market is a reasonable attempt to understand what is happening but it must go in and out of phase as the market is at least three dimensional. Even a linear time movement must change colors because of cycle conflicts. The logarithmic spiral is the only mathematical curve to follow the pattern of growth expressed in the nautilus shell and some researchers think the market moves in a continuous spiral log. That is just a different geometric shape representing the influences of time and cycles and space time. So what is the solution? I think MAESTRO is giving an example with color and shape morphing.