As per surf's request, the above is Maestro's challenge. (imo this relates to the question of how we define sentiment in the market)
This was my reply, no guesswork involved You can see hints of why I think sentiment is so powerful a factor in the market.
MAESTRO Registered: Nov 2004 Posts: 2315 03-14-13 10:02 AM Quote from Xspurt: Duh! Is no one going to answer the question? Nice song btw - I hadn't heard that one. The reason a market is predictable is that it acts like a living organism - it exhibits real life in its movement because it represents the group psychology of real people. It also exhibits repeating perfect mathematical relationships. It is how this ebb and flow intertwine that reveals intent and also whether we are looking at randomness or a real market chart. Okay I'll answer that with 100% certainty provided the choice is between a truly random generated chart and a true market chart. Based on that premise, this is a real market chart and I will bet my life on it. True randomness has no life form driving it and no mathematical relationship. This exhibits the true to life flow of money and has dozens of perfect mathematical relationships. Slam Dunk - it's for real And I joke not when I tell you that the reason I discovered this many years back was intuition. Getting up in the middle of the night and booting up the PC because I had that spark of intuition that I could investigate and prove. The markets are not random! This chart PROVES it. Can't ya all see it? You are too smart for me But isn't that true that without your excessive knowledge and your hands-on experience you wouldnât be able to tell? This is exactly what I am trying to say. This is one of the most powerful demonstrations of INTUITION. Thank you BTW, you are as always bang on! Cheers, MAESTRO And Maestro's reply
Here's the strange thing about sentiment and intuition in my thinking: we each build our own cage of beliefs that either empower us or limit us. What is possible or impossible for each of us is all too often projected on to the market (and each other) as absolute reality. But what if we are totally wrong? Isn't one of the tricks of success to keep an open and inquiring mind? It never fails to surprise me how traders mirror society in this respect: on the whole they are no more inquiring or open minded than the herd. Violent gang members have been found to be lacking in the social reading skills that allow normal people to live side by side. They perceive threat where none exists and murder because someone looked at them the wrong way. The raison d'etre for the gang is societies rejection of them. They don't see the riverbanks of etiquette that forms support and resistance guidance for how society exists. This is mirrored in how traders approach the market and discuss what works. Yes, sentiment in this respect often results in pissing contests. Consider the 1 min chart: how many posts on ET have there been to declare with certainty that it is all noise? So how can we pick up on sentiment there. What if it wasn't noise but the noise was instead in our belief system? What if we could even look below the 1 min and find many times total clarity exists? Then we are reading the rules in that level of market behavior that allows us to read sentiment and from sentiment comes intuition. That begs the question: can we connect the sentiment in a sub 1 min chart to a 4hr or daily or weekly reversal? In other words, how much value is attached to sentiment in a micro time frame - is it all connected in the grand scheme of things? Does the flap of the butterfly's wings alter the gravity of the market? Which brings me back to the question: is the market morphing into a machine? If it does so will it always carry the human DNA from which it evolved? Imo this is what distinguishes a computerized random chart from a real chart - the human heartbeat is both a mathematical phenomena and an artful dance that can be measured and observed. If my theory is correct, then the existence of the links of sentiment that connect the micro to the macro movements shows the market is not random but a living dynamic ocean with currents and cross currents that interweave and impinge on each other with shores of extremities (think of linear regression as a simplified example). I think it is a masterpiece that can't escape the tie to human emotions that drive it and far from a cacophony it is a an orchestral symphony with each time frame representing an instrument played by a master. Now who is conducting?
Don't fall for jack jr rhetoric. The maestro didn't even directly answer him "You are too smart for me But isn't that true that without your excessive knowledge and your hands-on experience you wouldnât be able to tell? This is exactly what I am trying to say. This is one of the most powerful demonstrations of INTUITION. Thank you BTW, you are as always bang on! " Call him "too smart" and "bang on". No idea what that means. It's not English. But never said you are correct. Even if he did guess correctly, it's 50/50 and the guy is riding it for glory. LMFAO! surf
Oh boy, here we go again... Cambridge Dictionaries: "Bang on" Definition - to be exactly right Example: What was your answer? 76? That's absolutely bang on! http://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/british/be-bang-on
Really it was as I described, that PA must move in lots of mathematical relationships and the chart is loaded with them. Within the movement of price is interaction between different cycles, much the same as the outcome of various lengths of sine waves colliding. In a random data chart this movement is messy and meaningless but when human nature is behind it there are give away clues. As far as the math is concerned, tops and bottoms are usually related if not always related. Try seeing channels in this movement. Regarding cycles, you'd need to study Hurst to get a hang of what I am referring to.