As for dogs, I would guess they probably smell some substances, which human body emit when certain changes occur in the organism...
Thank you. Interesting stuff. I am guessing you learn to see patterns in the "gauges", and use those patterns for acutal trading? Do traders have any other inputs in decision making apart from the IA tools? Like a chart for example.
Slow down Jack, you misread my statement: I was not asking how regression happens, but rather why it happens. I understand the how and can demonstrate it but better than that, I can demonstrate someone I mentor demonstrating it. What I can't explain is the "why" price will reverse on a sudden spike to an exact reversal point that your zillion lines miss so you are forced to label it a failure to traverse. It is the psychology behind the exact time and price reversal in a sudden spike on a 1 min chart that I am inquiring about and not how it sets up. Even to say it is possible starts flame wars that asks another set of interesting questions about market participation and underlying psychology. ET is full of claims and counter claims which ought to be healthy because one thing is for sure, there are many ways to skin cat in the markets and if you are skinning it as you claim then I'm honestly happy for you because other can benefit. But isn't it true that when anyone presumes that their way is the best way or only way or that some other way doesn't work, or that they have a differentiated mind and everyone else is using inferior conventional wisdom (even when you can't understand time is a variable in the market ) then such thinking puts us at a great disadvantage because part of the ability to learn and develop is closed to new inputs that could radically alter both a viewpoint and a destiny. Life is progressive but presumption is the killer for intellectual development or scientific progress and funny enough, ET is like bomber command dropping nuke quantities of presumption mantras. This is the disposition of many in ET: they want to tell others what works and what doesn't work but they have no background that could justify their claims so ET is a wonderful place for research by psychiatrists and psychologists to meet the insane who repeat the same operation over and over expecting a different set of results. In the world of investing we consider ourselves among the informed and the elite so reading the unsuccessful traders explain what ingredients are necessary for success is part of the humor in ET. A problem for us if we are screen traders is we have to consider spatial awareness because it is the interface our brain uses when we look at a monitor. When I mentored traders the amazing thing is how they differ in their perceptions of two things: first what they thought they saw and secondly what they thought they did. This is because the great thing but also the problem with spatial awareness is that, as I have mentioned , we see either a) what we want to see or b) what we are programmed to see. This is where I agree with Jack that by using drills we develop reflex logic so that when we are trading we are can operate more in visual mode. This is natural because when mathematical data is converted into shapes and colors it is much easier and faster to react on. The logic rules are still in force but applied in a different faster way and that I believe is the link to intuition. The problems for traders however is being aware of their personal perception and visual weaknesses along with how to build a reliable logic framework that intuition can be build on and this is why I really like MAESTRO's work. If we don't get these things right or corrected we can quickly sabotage ourselves. ET's constant flame wars exemplifies the visual and logic confusion that abounds among traders. Every experienced trader I have mentored has gone through many Ah Ha moments when they realized they neither did what they thought they were doing or saw what was really there. Cornix asked " how do we distinguish objective, algorithmic decision making from intuitive decision making in trading?" I think the bridge between the two is in how logic and spatial awareness develops and works together and in the final analysis it comes down to the speed of thought and that is why the logic room seems to be asleep. Perhaps an observation by Gregory Francis is helpful step in the right direction to make sure we are not fooling ourselves... "Like other scientists, psychologists believe experimental replication to be the final arbiter for determining the validity of an empirical finding. Reports in psychology journals often attempt to prove the validity of a hypothesis or theory with multiple experiments that replicate a finding. Unfortunately, these efforts are sometimes misguided because in a field like experimental psychology, ever more successful replication does not necessarily ensure the validity of an empirical finding. When psychological experiments are analyzed with statistics, the rules of probability dictate that random samples should sometimes be selected that do not reject the null hypothesis, even if an effect is real. As a result, it is possible for a set of experiments to have too many successful replications. When there are too many successful replications for a given set of experiments, a skeptical scientist should be suspicious that null or negative findings have been suppressed, the experiments were run improperly, or the experiments were analyzed improperly." Jack, I guess what people find a problem with is that you claim too many successes because you say you never make a loss so the suspicion is that you are suppressing negative results or not analyzing results properly. However there is a proof of the pudding challenge for you and me both. You say I only do the talk but claim you do the walk - how about you and I put it to the scientific test of replication over the next year? I believe I can take someone with zero TA background, zero educational qualifications and a fearful disposition regarding handling the emotions in trading... and take them from a $10k account to over $1 million in their 1st 12mths of trading. Obviously a newbie will not be able to trade at my level, but it is sufficient to prove a point. I have just started that experiment and it will be audited. You've been making these claims for donkeys years, can you get someone to step up to the plate? This will be an audited account by a top international accountancy practice so there will be independent verification. I think Gregory Francis hit the nail on the head, that experimental replication is the final arbiter for determining the validity of an empirical finding. You see I'm not clever, I just have a tendency to bend things out of shape visually and then ask lots of mad questions while I discover mathematical events that repeat themselves by using pictures to make the connections instead of equations. Now can you prove replication Jack? You are always posting for newbies and offering the opportunity to make a fortune if they follow you. You claim to take 6 times the ATR of the market and can pass that on freely to others. Take one newbie that on paper has little chance of making it and let's see it happen. If you are successful as I will be, then ET will have two more members that can step up to the plate and prove TA works big time and you don't need a masters degree to grasp it. Perhaps you already have a long list of SCT'ers who will jump up now and show audited results that turned $10,000 into $1,000,000+ in a year? Now I can't match surf's performance, or so it seems as he tells everyone that TA is dead and surf has price drivers that act ahead of price. I know what a quant can do and what a quant struggles with so I have a rather different opinion about surf's ability to look ahead and I have demonstrated it on surf's thread, but I can't debate the man's confidence in PD's and that TA doesn't work. So surf, let's apply the same test to PD's except you don't need to mentor anyone. All you have to do is show audited accounts for a 12 month period proving PD's beat the hell out of my student's stupid TA. Otherwise I'd consider your Anti TA-Amazing PD's Crusade a bit of a inversion of Jack's claims. It should be easy for PD's that see the future before anything appears on a chart to beat me to turning $10,000 into $1,000,000+. Now I am already a month into this project with a student that meets the "little-chance" criteria and way, way ahead of target and just like Jack and surf it is all based on "what must happen next", except I take a very different route to theirs. We can all be winners on this for the benefit of others and Jack probably has a plethora of guys and gals that will be champing at the bit to beat me to it, while surf tells us PD's have had an "amazing year so far" so he is racing out of the starting blocks. But it's not a race to the top... just a final arbiter guys. Having said that, I'll be waiting at the top for you guys while I try to figure out the psychology behind the market's movements.
Sounds reasonable to me. But probably more related to intra-day trading, where time is limited for making a decision. It made me wonder: if swing traders have different brain areas "activated" during their analysis of the markets, assuming they spend much more time in much less rush and process of trading is much less active decision-making for them? Could be an interesting experiment to do MRI of a person analyzing daily charts without any hassle... P. S. Good luck with your experiment!
Good idea Xspurt. Assuming that both you and Jack have methods that work how do you prevent that neither of you do the trades but the students do them after they had been instructed/mentored by you? Proving this way that a method works is a possibility but at the end there is always the excuse that the student simply was not able to comprehend or execute the way you taught him. You yourself had that experience already. And then the student can still blame it on both of you because neither of you was able to communicate and teach it in a way that supports the way the student learns.
from xpurt " What I can't explain is the "why" price will reverse on a sudden spike to an exact reversal point " there are a lot of ways to look at it but it's not rocket science,one way is the mean reversion(memory) http://imgur.com/gItMy28 and cornix asked " if swing traders have different brain areas "activated" during their analysis of the markets, assuming they spend much more time in much less rush and process of trading is much less active decision-making for them?" the answer is day traders look at a subset of timeframes where swing looks at a larger set, above chart is a day trade reversion,aapl chart is a 4 yr multi reversion ,same brain multiple timeframes, http://i.imgur.com/qEXqwRf.png back to building the house analogy,pulte may be building a tract of homes,an architect may be one of several, drawing plans ,many tradesmen per house ,doing individual pieces of the project,collectively ,the tract gets built..so the swing and daytrader are just 2 of the many toothpicks in the project
I wouldn't be concerned if Jack did the trades himself even if he wants to attribute it to someone else but being realistic, I understand Jack's health is not the best so a 12mth stint of trading is probably not on for him. As for myself, I have enough to do with my own trading and so I don't trade for students. If he fails to reach the goal then I'll say so but as I say we are miles ahead of performance goals. My experience was only that a student who has visual problems that I can't fix is not ready for my style of trading, so I didn't continue mentoring beyond a 2 week introduction. That doesn't preclude them from trading a different style or that they can't adapt to what I do at a later stage. I do some visual testing to start with so I can determine if a student meets the requirements I need. You're right, there is no guarantee on someone elses performance but I'll stick my neck out and say this is in the bag. The reason for my confidence is because the trades are all based on what must come next so should 2 trades in a row go wrong you have to check the whole gameplan. If you are trading what is ahead successfully then you have belt and braces on every trade.
in each of these 3 bell curves, ( http://imgur.com/zljiQ78 )there is a mean price,when we get there,you work to that price,so you have a mental picture..defined task..then all the kings horses and men will move it there..this is the greatest probability,or working the largest picture like mr pulte,and depending on where you are in the chain(architect,..landscaper)you do your part,job accomplished..currently we are not sure if mr pulte is going to get that 5 acres to the north, but we are busy building on the land he has acquired