I hesitate to ask about a sensitive subject, but I did not understand exactly what you were saying in the two posts about your Iran experience? Can you be more specific and elaborate? I pretty much remember everything I have read that you have posted about your life experiences, but this is new to me. Perhaps I was absent on one of my frequent ET cold turkey sabbaticals when you introduced it.
That is indeed very interesting! I like it! Can we talk more about it? For example, how do you determnine those states?
Of course it doesn't happen all the time, otherwise Soros would be bankrupt long ago if he regularly acted with such an amazing and stupid non-professionalism. I am a simple retail trader and still NEVER would allow myself to act in such an idiotic manner. When my mother was dying from cancer, when my wife lost the baby, I traded those days and have never acted as you describe. And you say top people in the industry would just "short the yen" with a single huge market order just because they are in a bad mood? Come on Surf!
...and by the way, what's the most beautiful. Suppose Soros DID just short the yen in a very violent manner. Yen plunged. What happens next? Very likely many eyes with many dollars in the accounts see that and make conclusions someone huge is selling. What is likely to happen? Correct, they will also sell at the first sign of pullback. Which creates a great TA pattern.
Yes, this spontaneous synchronization is exactly what forms TA patterns in my view. And the fact of it happening in waves (like in your analogy with hockey fans), when someone starts to chime and others join creates what's called "trend", which continues until everybody joins and exhausts with no more fans to chime. If we could quantify this process, we would get the key from the market so to say, knowing with high probability when exactly the next wave comes before it even comes. Right now TA helps to follow waves, but doesn't predict them with enough probability. Well, maybe it does with things like Fibonacci and Gann, but I've never been successful with application of those myself. Probably works for others.
Correct and as you know I showed surf such "elephants" at work in his journal and the expected outcome. Surf called the marked up while the elephants were selling and the elephants won. However that was only half the story, because the intraday elephants were calling for a much bigger roll over in time frames through to the weekly charts. From butterfly's wings comes great trends, but when an elephant is on the move it's a lot easier
Iranians trained their saboteurs to use pics of targets. People actually slipped me wooden shoes as inside humor. Once I lost my cover. Then, I was to be handled by a person where I was dealing with local stuff. He had a GF so he switched rooms with me as I missed a connection. I was to be taken out in that room. He was very resourceful and used the knowledge of tactics to convince intruders that they could determine he wasn't me after he had offered evidence of his ID which they rejected. His GF had a really memorable experience. I arrived for the aftermath. It is ridiculous, but I learned in the ARGO credits that I could josh about that part of my past. Actually you didn't miss anything. most of my life I denied those years of my life. Only once in Conn when I was sailracing did the local FBI figure out indirectly, got a whiff ,when they were checkng out a John Birch'er I worked with. My spouce reacted roughly with "aren't you tired of that cops and robbers stuff?"..... LOL....
I hope a lot of people reason through this post. It shows how far afield a person can go when he interjects thoughts from out of the blue. The market IS totally quantifiable. As a consequence, it follows that prediction is NOT required. The fact that inventor after inventor applies non admissable mathematics always seems to slip blithely past their followers. As a person goes through reaching the limits of infinite serial reactions of the intuitiveness of the Conventional Wisdom, all noise, flaws and anomalies MUST disappear finally. Profit segments have just three parts, and two of which are just moments. The other part is the part that exhausts itself. The moments must be an identity with one differentiable difference. Only one. Minds are born with heredity in tact. Garbage is built by the expanding personal environment and nurture. So no one takes the full offer of the market. All time is spent in one of two emotional settings. There is little emotional overlap. Up/Down and entry/exit exude from minds so conditioned as is the poster I quote. He goes afield in every direction as an example. A profit taking segment begins in a moment, fowards for its life 'till exhaustion, and ends with exactitude in a moment. All can focus on "begin". All can focus on NOT ending. All can focus on the opposite of NOT NOT ending at a moment. Once something is NOT beginning anymore, it is NOT ending. Most use infomation in information groups. They are supplied as asked for. After a beginning there are three questions: 1. Is the information group repeating? 2. Is the information group something that happened in this trend segment before? 3. Is it NEXT in the forwarding to exhaustion of the trend? If a trend has ended, then you assign the first act of it continuing. This is so focussed for the first information group. The independent variable has 11 elements from beginning to end during the continuation of a trend. For a long time I gave people the ends of profit segments and asked them to figure out the middles. Heredity and nurtured garbage prevent this process from happening. Even marketsurfer,steals some bullshit and recommends that the market does that bullshit. He types "zigzag". I love the humor he shovels out. A trend starts on a volume peak. since it does, then assign the first information gruop as "peak 1". Do the three part test on the next information group you recieve from the market. Do not think up stuff or invent stuff or read bullshit from anyone (include me, please). Is this information group another larger volume independent variable bar? Yes or NO. If it is its name is NEW peak 1. test procedure part 2 is easy. Has it happens before? YES or NO? If it has then it is still NEW peak 1. so what if the independent variable information group os neither a repet nor a former occurring element? It is next in the trend formation. It is trough 1. So lets say you look at 50 or 100 charts I have posted or you look at 50 or 100 posts I made that list the information groups where trend profit segments took place. You see each of my steps going through naming the independent variable information group. You are always using your contemporary experience to build your mind. Slowly, most people learn repeated failure. The OP does testing to show this learning failure process. Good for him. Now he can do his vendor deals unimpeded by anything. I have been joshing with an alphabet creator. He spoofed about spending 15 minutes creating the alphabet. he posts another quicky flled with info (new degrees of freedom) from information groups. As Tufte would say: "vey informative". One of Tufte's books is entitled: "The Qunatitaive Display of Information" another is: "Envisoning Information". Get a pic he found from about the early 1800's. It depicts 100,000 soldiers starting out and 10,000 returning to the same spot after fucking up on the way to Moscow in the Winter. So a bar is what it is because it is "relative". All of tradingthen becomes: ...... read slowly........... A Relative DataBase......... Management.......... System.......... so write the definitions of the parts in math and precisely. Name them. You are Alice going into Wonderland. Smoke some pot............ get past your your mind as you know it. Peak .....torugh .... peak ....trough ...... peak. a failure to continue...... Take another drag...... Trend overlap begins ........ and ends (at the trough) and you get to point 2 of the dependent variable. It is a peak in a spatial zone (see clean page four) anyways .......... In a couple of weeks you HAVE a fully differentiated mind with respect to MAKING MONEY. So do not do any of this just as you have been all of your life. Look left look right; confirm that no one is thinking again. Why do I get 3.5 million hits a year? I'm the punctuator. Luke AF base is Not screwing up in Tucson tonight. Last night they lied and got caught this morning just like Jack Nickolson did. LOL..... do you know why they can't see soundwaves breaking the sound barrier on an earthquake detector? Its because it not their job. So keep going afield and not doing the job. LOL .... So when does ET get GTM and have a new enlightening site for members?