Intrade: Obama 58.1% Romney 41.6%

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

 

Based almost entirely on the stock market performance. Not an especially good indicator by itself.

 

Never been wrong..

 

Notice where the numbers were right before the actual ruling

 

Funny stuff.

Check how high corzine's numbers were before Christie beat him.

 

Bush /Kerry





Obama /McCain





2008 House





2008 Senate






2010 House(From July until election day they had Republicans taking the House over 50)




Wisconsin recall( Had Walker over 50 the life of the contract)

 

It is probably poll based. Even the Reps don't want a Mormon president...

By the way fivethirtyeight gives similar chances based on the Electoral College. Obama's lead is 311 to 226:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/