InTrade has a new Depression Trade!

I noticed after I posted that it was real GDP, but didn't bother editing. Unless you're talking about something else?

 

You see a sure thing?

 

I checked back on the site to see what it was priced and it had actually increased. I figured that if it was that obvious then it should have went the other way.

Oops.

I actually went to the table 1.1.1 to look at what #s they are using and it looks like the only error on that is how they are adding up the four quarterly percentage change #s.

If they applied the same logic to 2006 it would be:
4.8 2.7 0.8 1.5 +
which would come out to an incorect +9.8% real gdp

 

Bond_Trader's an idiot. If he posts something wrong...he meant it. He's a moron

 

I suppose this thread is an interesting indicator of intelligence on ET.

On the one hand, maybe a lot of people spotted it but couldn't be bothered to point it out.


The mistake is here:

If these annualised figures add up to more than -10.0% over four consecutive quarters then the contract will expire at 100.