I see the error! I'm shocked that intrade is making such a mistake. Although it's a common mistake made by first time investors and traders alike.
BTW, that's an screaming short btw. There is no way there is a 56.6% chance of a 10% decline in NOMINAL GDP in 2009.
annualized GDP vs quarterly cumulative count? That is so broken. That means a mere flatline GDP (q/q unchanged) but annualized 4 quarters of x -2.51%+ is a depression under their method... If we have a -4.5% gdp the 4th Q, then by virtue of the economy just flatlining for 09 (not falling any deeper), we'll probably be at -20% for that contract. That contract looks like a buy unless by some strange miracle the last 2Q's see improvement y/y vs 2007. The definition they mean to be going after is any peak to trough period that results in 10% cumulative or more from start to end .. Not deducable by counting quarterly smaller changes.
Let's say you had dual citizenship with the US and Ireland. Let's say you signed a tax treaty so that you pay tax only to US but over time you did win money off these foreign gambling sites like Intrade. Are you committing a crime since it is illegal to do this if you were solely a US citizen?
The mistake is stating GDP instead of CPI or PPI Is this free $ or would they cancel this contact on this error? I thought market was efficient One part of me wants to short that to $0. Other part says its gonna get cancelled so wasted time.
If you can short intrade short this cause there will be no depression.intrade is useless anyway cause there's no liquidity.