you guys are arguing and talking out of your asses. why not input your TRIN theories into a backtester and see who's right, empirically.
the buffoonery continues. uhhh, yeah -- I think I'll run a comprehensive backtest over the last 50 year's market data on -- ohhh let's say 50 representative stocks -- and see if I can come up w/ some numbers that I can post on ET. Better yet!!! --- I'll start a website (like "brandon") -- and I'll promote it on ET. ... in addition to "verifying" the validity of the ARMS index, maybe I could backtest the theory that the world is actually round. Again, comprehensive results could be posted on ET (or my new website). The one common thread I see on this board, is that junior traders are DESPERATELY seeking a black and white trading method (that can be verified by "backtesting" - LOL). TRIN is just one tiny, tiny, tiny piece of a very large puzzle. -- however when one tiny piece starts to make a lot of noise, it serves one well to be cognizant of this. As an example, FV premium/discount means very little 95% of the time -- but occasionally it can be very valuable. Be sure to check out my new website: http://www.GreenDogsOfficialWebsiteFor-ET-Morons.com dog
I used to think, "If I look hard and long enough, I'll find IT", or, "If I track everything I can find, IT will come to me", or "If I keep at this long enough, IT will finally click..." Probably many other thoughts too, but after 20 years of having my butt parked in front of the screen... THERE IS NO "IT". All boils down to making a risk-controlled, educated guess. Simple concept. Not so simple to get right.
A little reading of financial news might have turned up the following: "A rare thing happened on Tuesday: The NYSE's TRIN finished the trade day at 3.68. Since October of 1989, there have only been 12 times that the NYSE's TRIN (an index combining both advance/decline and up-volume/down-volume indicators) has closed the trade day above 2.99 and following trade saw closing gains registered by the S&P 500 on 11 out of those 12 times (92% of the time)." ... hmmmm, maybe you and your website would like to address that. (case closed). those who can, trade. those who can't start a website. (believe me I'm sick of hearing this cliche too -- but man is it ever true - LOL)
Greendog, you retard, you called me a buffoon for telling you to backtest your claims, and now you just argued your case using backtesting. I guess you've joined in the buffoonery.
That was a good observation and heads up as I had noticed this yesterday too. But there's nothing wrong with backtesting this to see how it's acted in the past off these high readings and what the correlation is, if any, to market moves. It spiked on 4-11-02, 9-03-02, and 12-27-02 too. Also notice the VIX is not as high as it might be here. Lot's of complacency still it seems.