Although this does happen I'm fairly convinced it is only a tiny input to the movement of stocks that retail day traders are focused on. The much larger input is the YouTube channels and "trading courses" that retail traders are influenced by. Most of this free or cheap "wisdom" is all the same. Day traders move in the same basic direction and that creates volatility in the stocks they are trading. Trading is no different than succeeding in any other business. No one will tell you how to get rich although many believe someone will tell them. The secret to trading and small business success is simple: Figure it out yourself. Turn off the noise and just get to work.
If only 5 or 10% of traders succeed, then they are probably doing something different that the rest of the traders.
Correct. Most people are lazy and will quickly look for something less uncomfortable to do with their time. "It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer." - Albert Einstein
They are seeing something different Just like when a machanic drives your car he can point out multiple problems just by feeling and listening
Technically the easiest way to win is always by adding the winners. That's easy in the long run. What is the problem? In intraday trading, sometimes you think you are in a trend when in fact you are not. Prices sometimes change direction due to any news. Then it becomes difficult to add the winners. If you only operate one contract, everything is more random but it seems the only way to do it. You almost have to be a fortune teller to tip the balance in your favor. That's why intraday is more like a zero-sum game. The magic indicator that tells us that today will be a trend day does not yet exist, if it did exist, everything would be simpler.
a zero-sum game is a very good news because every day, billions of dollars are lost through trading AND ALSO billions of dollars are gained through trading. So be thankful there is this zero-sum game, and work very hard to be on the winning side. If hundreds of dollars are lost through trading AND ALSO hundreds of dollars are gained through trading, don't bother to trade because there is no trading opportunity.
Magic indicator doesn't exist you say - how about a magic orb? Oh wait not that kind of orb. The Opening Range Breakout kind. Then there is volume - globex futures or premarket for stonks. Finally probabilities. 1, 2, 3 lined up. But newbs want certainty. If they don't get it (how could they?) they scream manipulation. As long as they keep funding their hoodie commission "free" accounts who cares.
How do you know that it will be a winner? You might add just before the market reverses. In that case you added to a loser. If you know which one will be a winner, you don't need anything else anymore, because you know it will be a winner. Throw away risk and capital management... keep it simple.
zero sum game or not? I don't break my head on that. I break it on finding a very profitable and consistent trading plan. Because in the end the only thing I should care about is a growing account.
Intraday, swing, position or whatever, trading itself is a zero sum game. Zero sum basically means when one participant’s loss is another’s gain. In trading, we are not directly competing against any other trader. Our only aim is to make profit and that’s it. So, it doesn’t matter whether it’s a zero sum game or not.