Intraday major reversals

Discussion in 'Forex' started by forexploiter, May 2, 2009.

  1. Hey folks, just wanted to share an idea which has occupied my mind for quite a lot of time. It is NOT a trading system yet, I've come here to discuss to finally find a proper complete setup for building a system.
    What I'm speaking about is the situation when a day "crosses itself". Here's a simple example.
    Let's assume that a day starts at 5 PM N.Y. time (the banks settlement). Let's assume also that the previous day had its close above open and — what is more important — above the previous day's high. Now it's all for daily charts and we go intraday. Usually half-hour timeframe is detailed enough but you can go as deep as ticks if you like. We are waiting first for a break of the previous (that "tall" daily candle) day's high. Right after it happens we place a SELL order below the current day's low (remember the day has not completed yet so we consider the day's low as the lowest price since 5 PM N.Y. time of yesterday till the very moment of breaking the previous day's high). If it executes, we place a stop just above the current day's high (the same bla-bla as about the current day's low). If it is not executed till 5 PM then we cancel it.
    Now if the stop is not triggered we are now either at the very top of an uptrend or right at the end of a pullback in a downtrend. It can be seen easily with any trend-following indicator like MACD with standard parameters applied to daily charts. Also a 5-period Bollinger bands on daily charts are helpful to avoid trying to go counter-trend when the price is in the middle of nowhere.
    Of course everything is equally applicable to going long symmetrically.

    Now I have a number of questions.
    1. What to do if a stop is triggered and price the again goes to "self-cross" the day?
    2. Where to place exits? I'm sure there should be different exit strategies for topping of an uptrend and for topping of a pullback within a downtrend.
    3. Maybe I'm trying to re-invent a bicycle then please point me to another source with similar ideas.
    4. Has anyone noticed the same phenomena?
    5. Has anyone understood what I've uttered above? :)