Thanks Pholeuon but I don't think I will have time - I was just demonstrating the power of various techniques that are not so well known, but really if you get what's going on in this thread you'll be able to corner most moves.
yoohoo, my methodology is pretty simple. Oil has been going up so I've been buying oil stock calls! I also used to trade futures spreads based on historical price deviations (when the spread was unusually wide I bet that it would narrow) and I was pretty successful with that as well. My attempts at trading on TA however have all ended up breakeven or a slight loss. I've never done better than 50% accuracy.
Ok dejatrader I see what you're up to. You've baffled me as to why you didn't get your head handed to you trying that in daytrading. Either you're not telling me enough about exactly what makes you enter/exit or you have a very good sense of when the market is for or against you. I can understand that technique working to a limited extent on positions trading trends... but daytrading usually kills off that approach because you have not been trained to catch tops and bottoms. In fact most traders adopting that style are convinced it's impossible to catch tops and bottoms. If you have that sense of direction it will help you ride the intraday waves but you need to get in much, much earlier. Same as I suggested earlier, get 4 charts from 1 hr to 5 min and concentrate on catching the 5 min signals as per the ideas on the thread. The add the 1 min and begin to use the exact same signals there - it's just faster/earlier. You will really need to sharpen your chart reading skills and discipline as you won't have the comfort of riding an existing trend - you have to front run it. If you have the application required you intuition will move from saving your hide to banking big profits. I think you'll probably experience less emotional upheaval moving to this style, but a lot of traders using your style would not put in the time and effore required to learn the setups and speed required to catch the trade. So if you are prepared to apply yourself, you could be quite an ace at this.
As a basic strategy,I want to 'stay within my skill and knowledge level' for now, that means not trying to ride the totality of a movement....but lets say, to look for the bigger movements that might happen 4 or 5 times a day......(the jumps of 50 -100 pips) or getting in on a 200 pip ride (which seem to happen in a time 2 days?,3 days.4 days? after the initial 200 pip move....(like the recent one of a few days ago) .....I could see that the last big move up from 1.58 to new high....was going to retrace. I knew it would. but just looking for some waves to play on,50 pip waves....all I want to do is make 10 pips somewhere,and maybe another 10 pips in the next one. My mind is "connecting" to the flow of the price action and I can feel ,like keeping time with a dance partner, the flow. I have a mind for seeing the time energies that are flowing (I'm guessing you understand what I'm saying).... people can call it intuition,but more than that ,its the result of TA skills,and seeing all the rhythems of the waves(I wish I could explain it better).... When I see the seconds and minutes that it takes for PA to move one pip up and down, and tune into the flow,then I see the S/R levels,and then see what the PA does at resistance points,and then see what the 1 hour chart ,15 minute chart, 5 minute chart looks like.....it all adds to the feeling mind I am developing ....and when my Feeling mind is in agreement with my TA mind....I know its time to pull the trigger... I'm discovering that I'm right 90 % of the time......and the problem,when it happens, is that I entered "too soon" by 5 minutes,or 10 minutes.....my anticipation was correct,but "I was 10 minutes ahead of the move. "..... so I'm learning to be patient and refine that feeling mind. and with this mind,I enter and just look for whatever pips the wave will give me.....sometimes it might be only 5 pips in a wave that changes....other times, I feel the 5 minute wave I thought was happening, I now see is really a 15 minute wave that is connected to the last 15 minute wave, so I hold on and watch the 15 minute chart and look to see it play out at that level. and my goal is just to make 10 pips on the play and get out at resistance. So because resistance is so important to the flow of waves....I try to look for those ...."playing zones"....that might be 20 pips in front (or behind) a big resistance point.....and look for the trend moving toward the S/R point and if it feels like the PA is going there....I might pull the trigger and look to take profit just a few pips before the S/R point. This is the sort of idea I'm working with. I have absorbed the advise youve mentioned, and started really focusing on the 1 hour chart,15 minute,5 minute...and trusting S/R points more....and what else... the finer points like vetran clues youve mentioned....double tops,horns,flying knives,other things I really didnt know about....I dont know the experienced players clues like that. I just learned to start recognizing the Triangle Terminals....that seems like a big one to see....and the break outs that happen. I look for those . I see the importance of knowing the news moments....I dont have the handle on that yet. just to know what time the announcements are is something I need. and beyond that...I'm getting sharper every day, and really feel I have the natural ability for the analytical mind and feeling mind that it takes to succeed at this. My 'mistakes' have been about the precise timing for entry and exit. I see the direction correctly but I enter 5 to 15 minutes too soon....and exit at first temporary resistance too often. (....and Then watch the move do exactly what I predicted,15 minutes later !!!?!)....That happens 5 times a session for me. I know I'm going to succeed at this.I can feel it in my whole being and mind....its like my mind is 'wired' for this kind of analysis..... time flows....energy flows..... puzzle charts,number movements..... seeing wave patterns,cycles, all flowing in time frames,time flows....and how they are all interconnected in minutes to minutes,minutes to hours,to days and weeks.... the experience is sharpening my vision to see the bigger picture and the finer details Both at the same time. and all I want is to make 10 pips at a time, maybe 15 trades,in 4 hours....If the day will give it to me. whatever the day has to offer. Sometimes Ive seen the need to sit and wait and wait ,for 2 hours, before I see the right time to pull the trigger.... One other mistake I'm learning to avoid is the 'gambling impulse' to play and play ....too many plays...in a row like a sort of ....getting too caught up in the game...getting a little greedy,wanting the next win ...etc... and thats a hazard.... the pace is getting away from me,getting swept up in the game....and thats when I start getting lost in the sideways chopping at resistance levels,getting whipsawed...and losing $ or breaking even at best.....so I'm learning to not play at the table tops going sideways. thats when I might be sitting staring at the screen for an hour or two, waiting....and then if I'm lucky, I wont get too impatient and enter too soon on the next trade. (and thankfully,I dont have the 'Gambling addiction gene'.... when I feel like I'm gambling...I stop and get out,and regroup my mind. So I'm learning to find the comfortable pace of play, how many trades in an hour, how many hours before Ive had enough, etc.... Sometimes Ive sat in the euro session (at 2 am California) waiting and waiting for a big move I know has to come....and after 2 hours I decide to quit and go to bed...wake up the next day to find that the big move blasted off 25 minutes after I went to bed....Grrrrrr.... but maybe I'll have to accept that as part of the crazy game. it takes alot of composure to play this trading game. but so far so good. If I could learn the tricks to enter at the right moment ,instead of a little too soon that would help. and if I could master the ability to stay in a good move through the resistance points...(but I sense that will come with more experience and screen time) So thats the basic approach for me... and the experienced traders tricks and clues are just things I dont have yet. like the pinnochio....you and CF were engaged in last week...I got into looking at that until you told him to stop.... I stopped too when you said that. When I have time I will go to that web site you mentioned.....dacharts ? and study the things there. Thanks for letting me post. and Hello CF. wishing wellness for your family.
Nice one Tom. You're getting a good feel for cycle trading where there is constant interaction between cycles of different length. When you expcet a move and it is delayed but later moves as you anticipated, it is because a longer/bigger cycle is acting counter to the move so we dither/double or triple top/bottom and then take off when it begins it's reverse cycle and releases price. NB: these moves can be of greater length because this bigger cycle is carring price. However you are not yet tunes into the shorter cycle so you get in too early... it's your excellent sense of what should happen that keeps bringing home the pips. CF is getting an good eye for the fast set ups and this is where the shorter cycle is in play. When you learn to play these set ups you will be in the perfect position to ride the big waves, play any chop or counter trend trade as you so decide. Well done - big profits ahead for you in just a few weeks!
Damn, should have join CF's tread earlier, this is good stuff, Yoohoo pretty much pin pointed the issues for intraday traders, thanks, imagine a new guy try to sit in front of the screen and finding out what's trading is about, actually this is it.. regarding system/methods, most people come to the same conclusion after 12 months or so, but this is the stuff that make or break a trader, pretty much a new trader's must read. Once again, good on you Yoohoo
Thanks Willl. Sheesh I'm just looking at my spelling - sure glad I don't trade like that LOL. There are very few traders with 20 yrs experience that can trade at this level and while it's great for new traders, it's also very demanding for them. But then experienced traders who are not used to trading at this speed find it challenging to adapt to it as well. Fortunately only a few will catch on and the rest with slower set-ups push the PA in the direction we want
Good morning all! Wow, a lot of discussion was going on here... So new week ahead, let's learn to trade better!