ANOTHER LOOK AT OIL - $145 BLOWOFF... OR WHAT? Oil has been a one-way bet if you were any good at TA... but what about now? What can we learn for the Eur? Is the blow off over? All of these ideas can be applied to any market including Fx. Well first of all, on this chart the 12-year-old lines that I have posted from time to time are still working perfectly and caught this top bang on. You're familiar with the candle signals so shorting on proven resistance was a no brainer. But was that THE TOP? Is it a blow off? A sound market moves up at 45 degrees and that's exactly what the yellow line is set at. A blow off is much steeper. The MA's are industry standard 50&100. In a blow off PA moves way up from these MA's leaving a big gap to fall back to and fill. MAâs used like this are a simple overbought indicator, but this is looking sound. A blow off has big oversized pushes but this is well structured and civilized. It does look 5-wave-like so no surprises to see an ABC pullback and then a blow off push up⦠but it just doesnât look finished in the kind of nasty way it should with all the fundamentals. Now the interesting thing is when we look at the weekly chart (not shown) the move up is at 75 degrees - a sure blow off angle. MA's are left way below and it looks well fried. But then we have the threat of war with Iran plus China & India's increasing demand for oil and supposed lack of supply etc. On the other hand if industry moves into recession and drivers cut back?? What's my take? I think it's a loserâs game to try to call Major Tops or Bottoms in advance and pretty much the same for calling it after a small reversal. It puts one in a mental straight jacket so instead of flowing with the PA we hold a position to prove we were right. I called a bottom in Eur and projected an intermediate top 600 pips up and got it within 10 pips - but that was not calling the final top or bottom. Internal structures are much easier to call. So what I'd look for is a badly structured frothy blow off on the daily that mimics the weekly. But the key point is, be it Oil or the Eur, finding Key S&R and playing the reversals is always going to make money without ego or heartaches. If this is the final top then I got it. If not I'll get the reversal long and get the next top - so who cares if it's top or not â just go with the flow and make money on the longs and shorts and when the TFâs roll over and a bigger signal is given you know itâs ATM time. Then you can say you got the market top if that's your thing. But for all the news headlines I think thereâs not enough froth â more suckers are needed. In any event, it's one to keep and eye on because the lessons learned will be of value for the rest of your life. Enjoy
5758 - still got that line on my screen. Mentioned it way back - we had a big reversal on it - think it was about 100 pips.
Yoohoo, Invaluable lesson from you as always! That's what I yet have to learn - to reverse the losing top/bottom pick quickly! Will watch for those situations carefully to gain confidence in them... See there a great potential to improve my profits.
Internet accidently discovered to have a gaping security hole! Guys I started this thread to get some help with patching up my PC against the biggest hole ever found on the internet. Just want to make you aware of it because it seems I need to get my ISP to do their bit too. Will probably apply to all here.